As U.S. President Donald Trump actively promotes optimism about weekend negotiations and an end to the conflict, attention is turning to what the current sticking points actually are. In particular, Trump said on Monday (local time) that Iran had agreed to "almost everything" and that he might travel to Islamabad, Pakistan, the negotiation venue, if a deal is reached — focusing attention on whether Iran has truly agreed on the disputed issues.
According to major foreign media reports that day, four issues divide the two sides: whether highly enriched uranium will be removed, the duration of a uranium enrichment ban, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. With Trump stating that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, the last of these issues appears to be moving toward resolution.
① "Iran Willing to Compromise on Partial Removal of Highly Enriched Uranium"
The remaining issues concern nuclear matters. Reuters reported, citing two Iranian sources, that "signs of compromise are emerging regarding highly enriched uranium stockpiles," adding that "Iran is considering shipping part of its stockpile overseas, though not the entire amount." Iran is currently believed to hold about 440 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium, which could be enriched to weapons-grade 90% purity within just a few weeks. The United States wants the entire stockpile removed abroad, which Iran has opposed, but signs of partial concession are now being detected from Tehran. Whether Washington will accept Iran's "partial removal" offer, however, remains uncertain.
② Trump, Who Scrapped "15-Year Halt," Wants a Longer Period...Iran Seeks a Shorter One
The gap appears wider over the duration of the uranium enrichment ban. Trump claimed on Monday that "we have a very strong document saying Iran will not have nuclear weapons for more than 20 years." The remark can be read as suggesting Iran would suspend uranium enrichment for more than 20 years. But whether Iran actually holds such a position is unclear. In reporting so far, Iran has indicated willingness to halt enrichment for only three to five years.
Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear agreement signed under then-President Barack Obama in 2015, Iran agreed to a 15-year limit on various uranium-related activities. Trump, who unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 during his first term while criticizing it, needs to secure a commitment of at least 15 years or more to declare "victory" in the Iran war. That is why he is citing "more than 20 years" as the duration. By contrast, Iran — which views itself as holding the upper hand by wielding the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon — appears to be demanding a shorter suspension period than under the previous nuclear agreement.
③ Possible Linkage Between "Unfreezing Funds and Partial Hormuz Passage"...Full Reopening Only After Final Peace
The Strait of Hormuz is another obstacle. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran wants to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) centered on the United States unfreezing some Iranian assets and increasing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
A full reopening, however, appears to be postponed. A Pakistani security source said, "Iran will open the strait only when a permanent ceasefire is in place and the United Nations guarantees that the United States and Israel will not launch further attacks."
Amid concerns that a full reopening of the strait will not come easily, Brent crude futures for June delivery closed at $99.39 a barrel on Monday, up 4.7% from the previous session and approaching $100. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery closed at $94.69, up 3.7%.
2015 Nuclear Talks Took Two Years..."Europe and Arab States Expect 6 Months"
Related to this, Bloomberg reported the same day, citing sources familiar with the matter, that some Gulf Arab and European leaders expect it will take about six months to reach a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. The 2015 nuclear agreement itself took two years of discussions. Rob Macaire, former British ambassador to Iran, said, "Trump is optimistic because he is considering the impact on markets," predicting that "there will be no agreement between the U.S. and Iran in the short term."
Reuters reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators are lowering expectations for a comprehensive peace agreement and exploring an interim MOU to prevent a recurrence of the conflict. The plan envisions a 60-day window during which a final agreement would be negotiated with the participation of experts and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
