U.S. President Donald Trump has raised the possibility of a second round of talks with Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, on the 16th (local time). Iran is also showing signs of temporarily halting Iranian vessels' passage through the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. counter-blockade. Both sides are expected to work on resolving the thorny nuclear issue while also discussing a 45-day extension of the negotiation deadline.
In an interview with the New York Post on the 14th, Trump mentioned Islamabad, the venue of the first round of talks, saying, "Something could happen within two days and we're likely to go there." In a separate interview with Fox Business the same day, Trump said, "I think (the Iran war) is almost over. I think we're very close to it being finished."
If second-round negotiations take place on the 16th (the 17th Korea time), both sides will meet again just four days after the first round. Pakistan's Dawn newspaper reported that "extending the ceasefire is currently the top priority, with a 45-day extension being discussed." The two-week ceasefire declared by Trump runs until the 21st of this month, Eastern Time. However, in an interview with ABC News, Trump said, "There will be an amazing two days ahead," adding, "I don't think we need to extend the ceasefire."
While negotiations are set to resume, positions on uranium enrichment remain sharply divided. In his interview with the New York Post, Trump said, "I've said they (Iran) cannot have nuclear weapons," adding, "I'm not happy with the 20-year period." This was in response to reports by U.S. media the previous day that the U.S. had demanded Iran halt uranium enrichment for 20 years.
Vice President JD Vance also said at a Turning Point USA event the same day, "The president wants to make a grand bargain, not a small deal." Vance added, "(If Iran gives up its nuclear program) we will make Iran prosperous and invite the Iranian people into the world economy."
Iran, on the other hand, maintains that it can never accept a complete halt to uranium enrichment, even while engaging in negotiations. Tehran needs the justification of enriching at low levels (3%) or limiting the suspension period to five years to persuade its own people. Muhammad Saeed, a former Pakistani army lieutenant general familiar with the negotiations, said, "Iran is showing some flexibility on the nuclear issue," adding, "Iran needs to bring home a result that doesn't look like surrender to its people."
More than 20 commercial vessels reportedly passed through the Strait of Hormuz, currently under U.S. counter-blockade, in a 24-hour period as of that day. While still limited, control of the strait, which had been paralyzed, is gradually improving.
Rachel Ziemba, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a U.S. military think tank, observed, "Global markets will focus more on the possibility of a deal than on temporary supply reductions." Other issues expected to be on the negotiating table include Iran's claim for $270 billion (approximately 398 trillion won) in war damages and the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran. In this regard, the U.S. Treasury Department tightened the reins on Iran sanctions the same day by sending letters to banks in China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman that had allowed Iran's illicit financial activities.
The Hezbollah issue, which was a key agenda item in the first round of talks, appears to be taking a back seat. According to Iran International, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi showed flexibility on reducing support for Hezbollah and others during the first round of negotiations. Israeli and Lebanese government officials, who met in Washington through the mediation of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have begun working on resolving the Hezbollah issue through direct negotiations. However, Hezbollah opposes negotiations between the two countries, and skepticism about the outcome prevails.
