Meta is projected to surpass Google in digital advertising revenue for the first time this year, according to new forecasts. Analysts attribute the shift to the company's aggressive adoption of artificial intelligence for social media content recommendations and advertising. The turnaround reflects Meta's strategic pivot away from its namesake metaverse business to focus on AI-powered social networking services.
Market research firm eMarketer projected that Meta's global net digital advertising revenue will reach $243.46 billion (approximately 360.76 trillion won) by year-end, overtaking Google's estimated $239.54 billion (approximately 355.02 trillion won), Reuters reported Wednesday. This marks the first time Meta has surpassed Google in net digital advertising revenue since eMarketer began tracking the rankings in 2012—a span of 14 years.
AI played a pivotal role in Meta's reversal. Instagram Reels, the core driver of Meta's advertising revenue, saw U.S. viewing time increase 30 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year, powered by its AI recommendation system. The company's AI-driven ad automation tool, Advantage+, also contributed significantly. Reuters noted that Advantage+ has automated ad creation while improving return on investment. Additionally, Meta decided last year to introduce advertising on WhatsApp 11 years after acquiring the messaging platform, and announced earlier this year that it would gradually roll out ads on Threads.
Google's advertising business, meanwhile, faces headwinds. According to eMarketer data, Google's U.S. search advertising market share is expected to fall to 48.5 percent this year, dropping below 50 percent for the first time in approximately a decade. Meta's advertising segment is forecast to grow 24.1 percent this year, up 2 percentage points from the previous year, while Google's growth is expected to remain flat at 11.9 percent.
Meta, once considered a laggard in the AI race, has accelerated its transformation into an AI company through aggressive investment. On the 9th of this month, Meta's AI research organization, Meta Superintelligence Lab (MSL), unveiled its first product—a closed AI model called "Muse Spark"—just nine months after its formation. The strategy aims to leverage Meta's 3.569 billion social media users to create synergies in the consumer market.
According to Meta, Muse Spark performed comparably to or better than OpenAI's GPT-5.4, Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 in benchmark tests. MSL is also reportedly developing an AI model with Mark Zuckerberg's appearance and voice. The model is said to be a 3D character that reflects Zuckerberg's thinking, with the company exploring ways for employees to interact with the character and receive feedback.
