Israel's attack on Hezbollah on the very day of the first U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations has emerged as the biggest obstacle to reaching a deal. While eliminating Hezbollah—an organization dedicated to armed resistance against Israel—remains an unwavering objective for the Israeli government, the outcome of negotiations with the Lebanese government could potentially alter the situation.
Hezbollah, meaning "Party of God" in Arabic, is both a Shiite Islamic militant faction and an official political party holding seats in Lebanon's parliament. Lebanon is a nation comprising diverse religious groups, including Christians, Sunni and Shiite Muslims, and Greek Orthodox believers. The Shiites who form Hezbollah's base were originally a minority.
From its founding in 1948 until 1967, Israel forcibly expelled Palestinian forces, and Lebanon participated in wars against Israel from its inception. However, Lebanon's Shiite population remained quiet even when Israel seized the West Bank and Gaza Strip in 1967.
The formation of Hezbollah by Lebanese Shiites traces back to Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon in 1982. That year, Israel launched military operations into Lebanon—reaching the capital Beirut—under the pretext that the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) based there was plotting to assassinate an Israeli ambassador.
During this campaign, an estimated 19,000 soldiers and civilians died according to Lebanese government figures. The "Sabra and Shatila massacre" occurred when pro-Israel Christian right-wing militias killed up to 3,500 Palestinian refugees over three days. Israel subsequently maintained a presence in southern Lebanon's "security zone" for 18 years.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard, which succeeded in the 1979 Iranian Revolution, targeted Lebanon as the first destination for "exporting the revolution." They organized Hezbollah by uniting Shiite clerics and armed groups in Lebanon. Hezbollah waged guerrilla warfare until Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 but refused to disarm afterward, citing remaining disputed territories. Israel invaded Lebanon again in 2006 after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers, but the conflict ended after 34 days based on a UN Security Council resolution.
However, Hezbollah intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2011, and Israel conducted airstrikes against Hezbollah forces in Syria. Localized conflicts continued, and since 2023, the front has expanded to include the Gaza war.
Hezbollah attacked northern Israel, claiming it was supporting Hamas, the allied Palestinian militant faction fighting Israel in Gaza. For Israel, Hezbollah has become firmly established as a "threat to be eliminated." In Israeli retaliation in 2024, simultaneous pager bomb attacks targeting Hezbollah across Lebanon caused more than 3,000 casualties.
Hezbollah's participation in Iran's conflicts carries different weight compared to other pro-Iran forces such as Houthi rebels or Iraqi militias. On the day the ceasefire negotiations were announced, citizens in Tehran waved Iranian flags alongside Hezbollah banners in celebration. For Iran, which leads the Shiite minority that trails behind Sunni Islam, expanding influence through Hezbollah remains a strategic objective.
For Israel, Hezbollah's war participation has provided justification for continued attacks. Maha Yahya, director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, analyzed in an interview with The New Yorker: "Israel appears to have the objective of collective punishment against the Shiite community and occupying southern Lebanon through its airstrikes on Lebanon."
The key lies in the outcome of negotiations between the Lebanese government and Israel. If Israel halts its attacks on Hezbollah, the militia's justification for refusing to disarm would weaken. The Times of Israel reported on the 10th (local time) that the first face-to-face negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government to discuss Hezbollah's disarmament are scheduled for the 14th at the U.S. State Department in Washington, D.C. Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Nada Hamade Moawad will lead the Lebanese delegation, while Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter will head the Israeli side. U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michelle Sison will participate as mediator.
