Although the United States and Iran reached an agreement to halt attacks for two weeks, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blockaded. Analysts say Iran is expanding its influence by limiting vessel traffic through the strait and demanding prepaid tolls.
The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Iran agreed to limit daily vessel traffic through the strait to 12 ships under the ceasefire agreement with the US, while charging tolls of more than $1 million per vessel. "Iran is seeking to strengthen its control over the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important energy transit route," WSJ analyzed.
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, only four ships passed through the strait on the day the ceasefire was agreed—the lowest figure this month and a sharp decline from more than 100 ships daily before the war began. The Financial Times reported that Iran is demanding all tankers passing through pay tolls upfront in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan. However, Iran indicated it could reopen the strait ahead of Pakistan talks scheduled for the 11th if a framework for the ceasefire agreement is reached.
The US side continues to express optimism about opening the Strait of Hormuz. US Vice President J.D. Vance said, "Iran has promised to open the strait," and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed reports of the strait's closure as untrue, stating that traffic had actually increased.
In contrast, Fars News Agency reported that Iran blockaded the strait in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon, and Iran's state-run Press TV also reported that the strait is completely closed with tankers turning back.
Shipping companies view passage through the strait as still uncertain even after the ceasefire. Peter Sand, chief analyst at shipping intelligence platform Xeneta, said, "Container shipping in the Middle East is unlikely to return to normal quickly, so realistic considerations must accompany the ceasefire." He added, "Shipping companies want clear guidelines and are minimizing the number of passages through the strait."
Meanwhile, on the same day, Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline was struck by a drone attack, damaging a major export route transporting crude oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. The attack occurred just hours after the ceasefire took effect.