Southeast Asia is once again showing a stronger preference for China over the United States. Growing uncertainty over U.S. foreign policy is shifting strategic calculations among countries in the region.
According to a survey by Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute released Wednesday, 52% of key ASEAN policymakers and experts said they would choose China if forced to pick between the U.S. and China. Only 48% said they would choose the United States.
By country, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore showed a clear preference for China. The Philippines, Myanmar, and Cambodia, however, still had higher rates of respondents choosing the United States.
The results mark a reversal of recent trends. China held a slight lead in 2024, then the U.S. briefly regained the upper hand before the pendulum swung back toward China.
Experts pointed to U.S. political risk as the main driver of this shift. Some 51.9% of respondents identified President Donald Trump's leadership as the biggest geopolitical concern for Southeast Asia. Global scam operations, South China Sea tensions, and the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict were also cited as major risks.
China's expanding influence across economic and political spheres was also confirmed. Some 55.9% of respondents rated China as the most influential economic power, and respondents also said China exerts the greatest influence in political and strategic affairs.
However, growing influence has come with rising wariness. Concerns over interference in domestic affairs were cited most frequently as a negative factor regarding China. Beijing's assertive behavior in the South China Sea and Mekong River region were also noted as major concerns.
Respondents said China needs to resolve territorial and maritime disputes peacefully and respect each nation's sovereignty to build trust. They also called for trade structures that deliver mutual benefits.
Japan ranked as the most trusted partner in Southeast Asia. The European Union and the United States followed, while China received relatively low trust ratings despite its influence.
The report concluded that Southeast Asia continues to walk a tightrope between the U.S. and China, but growing unease toward both sides is intensifying pressure on strategic choices.