"Destruction of Civilization" vs "Human Shields"... "Ceasefire" Reached with 88 Minutes to Spare After Hair-Trigger Crisis

The United States and Iran barely reached a ceasefire agreement with only 88 minutes remaining before the negotiation deadline set by President Donald Trump. While the terrible situation has been temporarily patched up, analysts say there are still many hurdles to overcome. Israel has not stopped its airstrikes on Lebanon, and Iran appears unwilling to relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz. Given Israel's determination to continue attacks until the Iranian regime is destroyed and the gap between U.S. and Iranian demands, the possibility of war resuming remains high. Moreover, President Trump is devising plans that prioritize only American interests to appease domestic public sentiment, which could increasingly frustrate other countries. While an explicit two-week ceasefire period has been secured, global financial market volatility is unlikely to subside easily during that time.

President Trump posted on his social network service Truth Social at 6:32 PM local time on the 7th, stating, "I agree to halt bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks on the condition that Iran agrees to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz." This came with just 88 minutes left before the negotiation deadline of 8 PM that day (9 AM Korean time on the 8th). It was also the 39th day since the United States and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iran on February 28th. President Trump had previously extended the negotiation deadline three times since the 21st of last month, threatening massive airstrikes on various Iranian infrastructure including power plants if Iran did not agree.

President Trump claimed he made this decision after receiving a request to hold off on military action during discussions with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir. President Trump explained, "We have already exceeded all military objectives and are very close to a clear agreement regarding long-term peace in Iran and the Middle East," adding that he received a 10-point proposal from Iran. In a phone interview with AFP immediately after announcing the ceasefire, President Trump emphasized it was "a 100% complete victory beyond any doubt" and that "Iran's enriched uranium will be completely dealt with, otherwise I would not have agreed."

The New York Times (NYT) also reported that day, citing three Iranian officials, that "Iran has also accepted the two-week ceasefire proposal, which was approved by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil traffic passes, would be possible for two weeks. A White House official told U.S. online media Axios, "The two-week ceasefire takes effect from the moment the Strait of Hormuz is opened," adding that "Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire and will stop its attacks."

The two-week ceasefire decision between the United States and Iran was reached quite dramatically. Earlier on the 7th, President Trump posted on Truth Social comments harsh enough to say "an entire civilization will disappear tonight and never return." This statement was interpreted as willingness to commit war crimes, provoking strong backlash even within the United States. U.S. political media Politico also reported that "concerns are being raised about the worst-case scenario of President Trump using nuclear weapons on Iran."

Iran even mobilized its citizens to form so-called "human shields" around power plants and bridges. Iranian Fars News Agency actually posted photos of citizens standing densely with Iranian flags in front of thermal power plants in major Iranian cities.

China Urged Agreement Amid Intense Behind-the-Scenes Negotiations... Talks in Pakistan on the 11th

President Trump's wavering until the last moment between massive airstrikes and ceasefire is interpreted as reflecting how breathtakingly intense the behind-the-scenes negotiations between the United States and Iran were. According to Axios on the 8th, Jewish Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who received the 10-point mediation proposal in Pakistan on the 6th, was reportedly so displeased that he described it as "a disaster and catastrophe." Subsequently, Pakistan created a revised proposal and delivered it to Envoy Witkoff and Minister Araghchi, and as the foreign ministers of Egypt and Turkey actively engaged in negotiations, the U.S. mood began to change. Although demands poured in from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and hardliners among U.S. allies not to accept the mediation proposal, President Trump accepted Pakistan's offer. U.S. forces deployed to the Middle East received withdrawal orders just 15 minutes after the Truth Social post was published.

On the Iranian side, the agreement gained momentum when Supreme Leader Mojtaba issued instructions to engage in negotiations. Minister Araghchi also persuaded the commanders of the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to accept the mediation proposal. If the Axios report is accurate, the head of what President Trump called "a smarter and less radical new regime in Iran" is Supreme Leader Mojtaba, who lost his father, mother, wife, children, sisters, and nephews all to U.S. airstrikes.

China was also mentioned as a behind-the-scenes force driving the ceasefire. The NYT reported on the 7th, citing Iranian officials, that China intervened at the last minute to urge Iran to exercise "restraint and flexible response." China reportedly pressured Iran to accept the mediation proposal by specifically warning of the shock to the Iranian economy if the U.S. attacked energy facilities. AFP also reported that China and U.S. Vice President JD Vance led the agreement as the negotiation deadline approached. Wang Yi, Director of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Foreign Affairs Office and Foreign Minister, had been calling for a ceasefire from the early stages of the war through successive phone calls with foreign ministers of key Middle Eastern countries including Iran, Israel, Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

China is the largest customer, accounting for more than 80% of Iranian oil exports. If the war drags on, China would also face the burden of oil supply instability and rising prices. This could provide the U.S. with leverage to demand that China import American crude oil during President Trump's visit to China on May 14-15. China has set this year's economic growth rate at 4.5-5.0%, the lowest in 35 years, due to weak domestic demand, oversupply, real estate slump, and high youth unemployment. President Trump also acknowledged in his AFP phone interview on the 7th, responding "I heard so" when asked whether China urged Iran to engage in ceasefire negotiations.

White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt announced in a briefing on the 8th that "President Trump has decided to send a negotiating team led by Vice President Vance, Envoy Witkoff, and Jared Kushner (Trump's eldest son-in-law, who is Jewish) to Islamabad (Pakistan's capital)." Leavitt added, "The first meeting will be held Saturday morning (the 11th), and we are looking forward to face-to-face talks."

Israel Continues Attacking Lebanon... "Trump Decided on War Based Only on Netanyahu's Words"

The problem is Israel, the other axis of the war. Israel has agreed to halt airstrikes on Iran but maintains its position of not stopping attacks on pro-Iranian forces in other countries. Depending on Israel's actions, situations where a ceasefire is not really a ceasefire could easily arise.

According to Reuters on the 8th, Prime Minister Netanyahu supported President Trump's ceasefire decision while claiming that combat against Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian armed faction in Lebanon, is not included in the agreement. That same day, he launched fierce airstrikes on Lebanon where Hezbollah is located. Lebanon's Ministry of Health reported hundreds of casualties from Israeli airstrikes that day. Prime Minister Netanyahu also stated in a video message on the 8th, "Israel has more objectives that must be accomplished," vowing, "Whether through agreement or through resumed combat, we will definitely achieve those objectives." Netanyahu emphasized, "We are ready to return to combat at any time," adding, "Our fingers are on the trigger too."

Reports also emerged that President Trump trusted Prime Minister Netanyahu's words more than his White House staff and pushed ahead with the war. The NYT, which is always critical of President Trump, made this claim on the 7th while providing detailed behind-the-scenes accounts of a secret White House meeting held on February 11th before the war. According to reports, Prime Minister Netanyahu met with President Trump in the White House Situation Room that day. Present at the meeting were President Trump, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense (War) Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. Vice President Vance, who was in Azerbaijan, was unable to participate in the meeting.

According to the NYT, Prime Minister Netanyahu spent an hour at this meeting arguing forcefully for striking Iran. Netanyahu emphasized that now was the right time for regime change in Iran and that Iran's ballistic missile program could be neutralized within weeks. He also claimed that Iran would be weakened to the point of being unable to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and that the likelihood of striking American interests in neighboring Middle Eastern countries was low. He also tried to persuade them that inciting anti-government protests within Iran could bring about the collapse of the regime. It is reported that Netanyahu even separately prepared visual materials showing candidates for new leaders who would cooperate with the United States after the collapse of Iran's theocratic regime.

In response, Director Ratcliffe dismissed the regime change scenario as "absurd," and Secretary Rubio called it "nonsense." Chairman Caine warned of the dangers of military operations, including Iran's potential to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "typical Israeli exaggeration." The most enthusiastic supporter of attacking Iran was Secretary Hegseth. While Secretary Rubio and Chief of Staff Wiles offered tepid opinions, the strongest opponent of war was Vice President Vance. President Trump ultimately decided to approve military action at the final meeting on February 26. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who should have warned about the risk of a Hormuz Strait blockade, were excluded from the meeting.

In a PBS phone interview on the 8th, President Trump said he was aware of Israel's attack on Lebanon and stated that "it was not included in the ceasefire agreement because of Hezbollah." He also downplayed it, saying "it's just a separate small skirmish." Trump's remarks were completely in line with Israel's claims. In contrast, Minister Araghchi called Pakistan's Supreme Commander Munir on the 8th to protest that Israel had violated the ceasefire.

Iran Presents Demands as if a Victorious Nation... Demanding $3 Billion Transit Fee Per Ship Plus Reparations

Although the dramatic ceasefire agreement bought two weeks of time, diplomatic circles expect an extremely difficult process before an actual end to the war is achieved. Setting aside Israel, the gap between U.S. and Iranian demands is simply too large. According to Iranian state media and other sources, the 10 items presented by Iran include Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, cessation of attacks on Iran and its proxies, withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, reparations to Iran, lifting of sanctions and asset freezes, and a UN Security Council resolution to guarantee the binding nature of the ceasefire agreement. This is a plan to collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, which was freely navigable before the war. Iran's plan is to charge approximately $2 million (about 3 billion won) per vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, jointly with Oman. While this is a plan difficult for countries worldwide to accept, Iran's position is that this money is necessary for post-war reconstruction.

Reaching an agreement on halting nuclear weapons development is also a heavy task. According to AP and others, Iran stated in its Persian-language statement that the United States accepted enrichment for its nuclear program, but this content was omitted from the English statement. If Iran's demands are met, uranium stockpiles would still remain in Iran even after the war.

The proposal that the international community should withdraw economic sanctions against Iran and return frozen assets is also close to a condition only a victorious nation could demand. The same applies to the content about compensating for war damages. The fact that Mojtaba succeeded his father, former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Supreme Leader also casts doubt on the "regime change" that President Trump claims. Key Iranian figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian are holding firm that Supreme Leader Mojtaba will not approve a peace agreement unless the United States agrees to the 10 items.

Secretary Hegseth interpreted this at a briefing on the 8th, saying "We achieved a decisive, historic, and overwhelming victory against Iran," and "This agreement means Iran will never have nuclear weapons again." Chairman Caine also said, "U.S. forces have accomplished their military objectives in Iran," and "The ceasefire is a temporary pause, and we will maintain readiness to resume combat."

In this situation, President Trump preached the justification for war by suggesting that great economic benefits had been gained. On Truth Social on the 8th, Trump indicated willingness to partially accommodate Iran's demands, saying "The United States will help ease the traffic congestion in the Strait of Hormuz." Trump said, "Great profits will be made, and Iran can begin the reconstruction process." Trump added, "I have determined that Iran has undergone a very productive regime change," and "Uranium enrichment will no longer take place, and the United States will work with Iran to dig up and remove all deeply buried nuclear debris."

Without Considering Other Countries, "Reviewing Joint Toll Collection"... Mountains of Obstacles Until War's End

President Trump has even begun reviewing a plan to jointly collect tolls with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Other countries are showing bewildered reactions as they gained nothing from the Iran war. ABC reporter Jonathan Karl posted on his X (formerly Twitter) on the 8th, explaining that "When I asked President Trump whether it's okay for Iran to charge tolls on all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said 'The U.S. and Iran could collect tolls jointly.'" According to Karl, Trump said, "We are thinking about proceeding with this as a joint venture," adding that "this could be a way to guard the strait against various other forces." Trump also added, "That would be a really beautiful thing."

This plan by President Trump contradicts the official U.S. position before the ceasefire agreement. As recently as the 27th of last month, after meeting with G7 foreign ministers near Paris, France, Secretary Rubio told reporters that "Iran's introduction of a toll collection system for the Strait of Hormuz is not only illegal but unacceptable and dangerous to the entire world." Rubio emphasized at the time that "it is important for the world to develop a plan to counter this" and that "the United States is ready to be part of that plan."

Global financial markets, which had been watching and waiting until the negotiation deadline, were relieved by news of the ceasefire. On the 8th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (2.85%), S&P 500 index (2.51%), and Nasdaq Composite (2.80%) all surged on the New York Stock Exchange. On the London ICE Futures Exchange, June delivery Brent crude futures closed at $94.75 per barrel, down $14.52 (13.29%) from the previous trading day, recording the largest drop since March 2022. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May delivery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also closed at $94.41, down $18.54 (16.41%), the largest decline since April 2020. The WTI futures price is at its lowest since the 25th of last month.

The urgent fire has been extinguished, but a complete peace agreement between the United States and Iran appears to have a long way to go. From the first negotiations on the 11th, it is expected to be difficult for both sides to narrow their differences. There is also a high likelihood that the war of words continuously exchanged by the U.S. and Iran over the next two weeks will increase global financial market volatility again. Above all, if an agreement is reached in the direction of actually imposing Strait of Hormuz transit fees, global oil prices are expected to remain at levels significantly higher than before the war. In this case, South Korea's economy, which has high dependence on Middle Eastern energy, will likely find it difficult to avoid negative impacts. According to Iran's state-run Press TV, starting on the 8th, the Strait of Hormuz, which had temporarily opened after the ceasefire took effect, was completely closed, causing oil tankers trying to pass through to abruptly turn around.

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