China's behind-the-scenes mediation played a decisive role in bringing the United States and Iran to a dramatic "two-week ceasefire" agreement, according to reports. Analysts say Beijing's influence in the Middle East is growing amid regional turmoil.
The New York Times reported Wednesday that Iran accepted the ceasefire proposal following last-minute intervention by China, a key ally, and persuasion by Pakistan, citing three Iranian officials. China urged Iran to "de-escalate and respond flexibly," warning that an actual U.S. airstrike on Iranian infrastructure would inflict massive economic damage, the report said. President Donald Trump also acknowledged China's role in a phone interview with AFP the same day, saying, "It seems China made Iran negotiate."
The agreement was reached just 90 minutes before the negotiation deadline, after Trump raised pressure by invoking the possibility of "civilizational destruction." Analysts suggest China leveraged its economic influence over Iran to broker the deal. China is Iran's largest export destination, accounting for one-third of the country's total trade volume. According to ship-tracking firm Kpler, more than 80 percent of Iranian oil was sold to China last year. The two countries signed a "25-year strategic agreement" in 2021 under which China would invest $400 billion in Iranian infrastructure in exchange for discounted Iranian crude oil.
Pakistan's emergence as a key mediator was also backed by strong support from its longtime ally China, analysts say. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif proposed to Trump a two-week extension of negotiations and suggested Iran open the Strait of Hormuz—proposals that largely overlap with the "Five Initiatives for Middle East Peace" recently announced jointly by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.
Sources say China, as the largest importer of Iranian oil with a vital interest in stability in the Strait of Hormuz, offered an implicit guarantee to prevent the collapse of the Iranian regime and continue economic support if the ceasefire succeeds. The ceasefire's direct connection to Trump's planned visit to China on May 14-15 is also cited as a factor that prompted Beijing's intervention.
The agreement is expected to further expand China's diplomatic influence. CNN noted that "China played a key role in mediating the improvement of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the past," adding that "the role of China as a mediator is also part of President Xi Jinping's alternative vision for international security."