Citrini Research, the U.S. research firm that rattled markets with its report on artificial intelligence-driven job displacement, has turned its attention to the Strait of Hormuz, where vessel traffic has plunged amid war. "The binary framework of 'open or closed' no longer applies," the firm said, predicting that "conflict will persist while the number of ships transiting the strait also increases."
Citrini published a report titled "Strait of Hormuz: Citrini Field Study" on Tuesday. To obtain accurate findings, the firm dispatched an on-the-ground analyst directly to the Strait of Hormuz, where the researcher met with smugglers, shipping operators and other stakeholders, and personally observed vessels passing through the waterway.
Their conclusion: under the supervision of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), transit through the Strait of Hormuz is being maintained in an orderly fashion, and Iran does not want the strait closed. Like Turkey's Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, Iran is calculating to marginalize the United States and assert sovereignty over the waterway by permitting transit under its own set of rules, the report said.
"Over time, more and more vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz," Citrini said. "Not a single ship that received IRGC authorization has been attacked so far." The firm also claimed that Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, widely relied upon to track conditions in the strait, captures only about half of the vessels actually passing through.
Citrini assessed that claims of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely. According to its analyst, Greek shipping company Dynacom's vessels were observed transiting through the middle of the strait. Many ships were also using an "alternate route" passing through Qeshm Island and Larak Island, known as the "Iran tollgate." To clear the tollgate, vessels must submit detailed information through a broker. Payments can be made not only in cash and cryptocurrency but also through diplomatic arrangements such as unfreezing Iranian assets held in foreign bank accounts, according to Citrini. India and France were categorized as countries that secured transit rights through diplomatic agreements rather than cash payments.
However, very few transits by very large crude carriers (VLCCs) of Aframax class or above, capable of carrying 80,000 to 120,000 tons, have been observed. "If only LPG carriers and small tankers continue to transit, the global economy will still be heading toward catastrophe," Citrini added. The firm estimated the current net loss in global commercial petroleum inventories at 10.6 million barrels per day. If the United States blocks the toll system and the strait is completely shut down, an energy catastrophe could strike the world within three to four weeks, the report warned.
An estimated 10 countries have currently secured transit rights: China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, France and Japan. "The list is expected to grow as countries around the world conclude that securing their own energy supply is worth the diplomatic burden of dealing with Tehran," Citrini said. The implication is that multipolarization in energy security will intensify going forward.