U.S. and Iran Both Claim Upper Hand as Escalation Risks Mount

U.S. President Donald Trump has once again extended his deadline for striking Iran's power plants and other infrastructure to 8 p.m. on Monday (Eastern Time, 9 a.m. Tuesday Korea time). Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf responded with a hardline warning that "the entire Middle East will burn." With both sides believing they hold the advantage, analysts say the prospects for negotiations are shrinking while the risk of escalation is only growing. **48 Hours → 5 Days → 10 Days → 1 Day: Trump Extends Deadline for Third Time** In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Saturday (local time), Trump said, "If Iran doesn't take any action by Tuesday afternoon, that country's power plants and bridges will all come crashing down." Just before the interview, he posted a brief message on Truth Social reading "Tuesday 8 p.m. Eastern!" — effectively setting 8 p.m. on Monday as the new deadline. This marks the third time Trump has extended the deadline. On March 21, he threatened to strike Iran's power plant facilities unless it opened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. On Monday, March 23, just before the New York Stock Exchange opened, he claimed to have had "productive talks with Iran" and granted a five-day reprieve. Then on March 26, as the New York stock market continued to plunge, he pushed the deadline back another 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, before adding one more day on Saturday. **Iran: "Trump Following Netanyahu's Orders Will Set Entire Middle East Ablaze"** Trump sent notably mixed messages on Saturday alone. That morning, he posted on Truth Social: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, Bridge Day. Open the damn Strait of Hormuz, you crazy bastards. Otherwise you'll be living in hell." At that point, the deadline was still understood to be 8 p.m. on Sunday as originally set. But shortly after, in a Fox News interview, he said, "I think a deal will be reached by Sunday. There's a good chance." He then posted the new Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline on Truth Social and reconfirmed the timing with the WSJ. Trump has scheduled a press conference on the rescue of the Air Force pilot for 1 p.m. on Sunday (2 a.m. Monday Korea time), at which additional messages regarding the Iran situation are expected. In response, Iranian Speaker Ghalibaf posted on X (formerly Twitter) after Trump's profanity-laden message: "Because of your stubborn adherence to Netanyahu's orders, our entire region will burn." He added, "Make no mistake. There is nothing to be gained through war crimes." He also stressed that "the only true solution is to respect the rights of the Iranian people and end this dangerous game." **Trump Emboldened by Pilot Rescue? "Ground Troops Not Ruled Out"** The New York Times analyzed that the successful rescue of the American pilot could heighten tensions between both sides further. While Trump may be emboldened by the U.S. military extracting an Air Force pilot from deep inside Iran, Iran may also be buoyed by having shot down a state-of-the-art American fighter jet. The operation could give the United States greater confidence in deploying ground troops to seize the Strait of Hormuz or remove uranium, analysts noted. Indeed, in an Axios interview on Saturday, Trump said, "There's a good chance we'll reach a deal, but if we don't, we'll blow everything to pieces." In an interview with The Hill, when asked whether he ruled out deploying ground troops, he replied, "No." Iran, for its part, may judge that it holds the upper hand in the conflict as long as it controls the Strait of Hormuz. Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group (ICG), a U.S. think tank, said that with both countries perceiving the situation as favorable to themselves, it is difficult to expect the crisis to end through diplomatic resolution. "From this point on, the war will become far more dangerous than before," he stressed. "This is a classic escalation trap."

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