The "Islamabad Accord" proposed by mediating nations appears to be a strategic move to secure a ceasefire first before tackling thornier issues. Under the plan, the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened immediately upon both sides agreeing to a ceasefire, with a final peace deal to follow that incorporates demands from the United States, Israel, and Iran. The final agreement is expected to include Iran's pledge to abandon nuclear weapons development and reduce ballistic missile range in exchange for sanctions relief and the unfreezing of assets.
However, Iran, which already holds control over the Strait of Hormuz, is leveraging that position to maximize its bargaining power, while the Donald Trump administration is also taking a wait-and-see approach. Complicating matters further, Israel has launched airstrikes on Iran's largest petrochemical complex, threatening to derail negotiations.
Mediating nations are reportedly deliberating proposals to Iran that include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. They are simultaneously reviewing measures the Trump administration could take to prevent a recurrence of war. Iran has previously demanded international guarantees that the United States and Israel would not launch another attack as one of its conditions for ending hostilities.
Mediators have urged Iran that "there is no more time for negotiating tactics," emphasizing that "the next 48 hours are the last chance to reach an agreement and avert massive national damage." Pakistan Army Chief of Staff General Asim Munir, who has led the mediation effort, said he had been in contact throughout the night with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Japan has also joined the mediation diplomacy. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said during an upper house budget committee session that "we are pursuing separate summit talks with both the United States and Iran at an appropriate time," adding that "we are also coordinating responses, including a phone consultation with President Trump." Japan has maintained friendly relations with Iran. In 2019, when the United States and Iran were locked in tensions, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Iran and met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a mediation attempt.
Iran's mood so far has been negative. Iran's state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency criticized the proposal, stating that "a 45-day temporary ceasefire proposed under the shadow of war does not align with Iran's policy" and that "any ceasefire that fails to meet Iran's conditions for ending the conflict would only give enemies time to regroup." Reuters, citing a senior Iranian government official, reported that "the United States said it is not ready for a permanent ceasefire." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said a response to the ceasefire mediation plan delivered by the mediating nations had been prepared. He dismissed the U.S. "15-point peace plan" as unacceptable, however.
Some observers note that the United States and Iran are engaged in a tug-of-war over reducing Iran's ballistic missile range.
A White House official told the Financial Times that President Trump views the mediation plan as just one option. The official added that the plan has therefore not yet been approved.
Meanwhile, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control is gradually increasing. Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency reported that 15 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz with Iranian authorization over the past 24 hours. U.S. research firm Citrini Research also said in a report on the Strait of Hormuz that "the binary perspective of 'open or closed' no longer applies," predicting that "the number of ships transiting the strait under Iranian control will increase."
Citrini concluded that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is being maintained under the supervision of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and that neither a complete blockade nor full opening is feasible. The analysis suggests Iran is calculating to secure sovereignty over the strait by allowing passage under its own regulations, similar to how Türkiye manages the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.
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