As the war with Iran enters its 37th day with no exit in sight, a global energy crisis is becoming reality. Experts say the risk of Middle East-driven energy disruption is likely to persist even after the war ends, unlike in previous conflicts, and that new strategies are urgently needed.
As of Sunday, approximately 50 energy facilities across the Middle East have been attacked since the start of the Iran war, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) tallies and damage assessments from affected countries. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said on May 23 that about 40 critical energy facilities in the Middle East had been damaged. Since then, the United States, Israel, and Iran have intensively struck more than 10 additional energy sites across the region.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed on Monday that it carried out large-scale bombings of Middle East energy facilities linked to the United States, including an oil refinery in Haifa, Israel, the Habshan gas facility in the United Arab Emirates, the Sitra petrochemical plant in Bahrain, and the Shuaiba petrochemical complex in Kuwait.
The risk of a blockade at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea chokepoint that handles 10% of global crude oil shipments, has also grown. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X, formerly Twitter, asking "what share of the world's oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), wheat, rice, and fertilizer shipments passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait" — signaling a possible blockade card.
IEA Executive Director Birol warned that "the current disruption to oil and LNG supplies is more severe than the first and second oil shocks and the gas supply reductions caused by Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine combined," adding that "we are heading toward the largest supply disruption in history."
Some of the damaged facilities, including Qatar's LNG installations, are expected to take up to five years to restore. Observers note that the Strait of Hormuz, once blockaded, could see conflict reignite at any time. Aubrey Hruby, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank, said the Iran war "is accelerating structural changes in how countries approach energy policy, trade, and security."
Meanwhile, U.S. forces rescued two pilots who ejected from a U.S. Air Force F-15 fighter jet shot down by Iranian forces. The two sides engaged in combat over the course of two days during the rescue operation, and prospects for negotiations have grown even more remote, according to assessments.