As the Middle East war enters its final phase, control of the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the decisive variable determining victory and defeat. Iran is treating the strait as its last instrument of deterrence, while the United States demands its opening and warns of military action, creating an extreme standoff.
According to a compilation of foreign reports on Saturday, Iran has begun pursuing legislation to impose transit fees on commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and to restrict passage by distinguishing between friendly and unfriendly nations. U.S. President Donald Trump is exploring a ceasefire with Iran on the condition that the strait be reopened, and has warned he would devastate Iranian infrastructure if no progress is made in negotiations by Tuesday.
Experts view Iran's fixation on the strait as its last card directly tied to regime survival. Vali Nasr, a Middle East expert at Johns Hopkins University, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, "The Strait of Hormuz has now become more important to the Iranian regime than its nuclear program." He explained, "The nuclear program was merely symbolic and failed to provide deterrence. The only reason Iran can hold out in this war is control of the strait and the revenue it generates."
The impact of the blockade has been immediate. Maritime logistics in the Persian Gulf have been effectively paralyzed for over a month since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28. The number of vessels transiting the strait dropped from the usual 100 or so to just dozens. According to Bloomberg, Iran is considering charging tankers approximately $1 per barrel, payable in Chinese yuan or stablecoins. By that calculation, a single very large crude carrier (VLCC) would face transit fees of approximately $2 million (about 3 billion won).
The strait blockade has dealt a direct blow to the U.S. economy. International oil prices surged to around $120 per barrel, and U.S. gasoline prices exceeded $4 per gallon — widely regarded as the threshold for consumer confidence. President Trump now faces the political burden of rising fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections in November.
Iran has signaled it will maintain its control measures even after the war ends. Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of Iran's parliamentary National Security Committee, said, "The Strait of Hormuz will reopen, but passage will be permitted only for countries that follow Iran's new rules."
The U.S. response remains uncertain. President Trump has hinted at military options while also referencing roles for Europe and Asia, sending mixed messages. French President Emmanuel Macron dismissed the idea of a military operation in the strait as unrealistic. Observers note that any reopening operation would face significant casualties given the expected Iranian counterattack with drones, missiles, and fast attack boats.
Concerns over a prolonged crisis are also mounting. Hassan Alhasan, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), warned, "Iran gains the ability to impose de facto sanctions targeting specific countries at a time of its choosing," adding that "this creates a structure that continuously threatens global maritime logistics."
Gulf states have already begun responding. Saudi Arabia is rerouting approximately 7 million barrels of its daily output of 10 million barrels through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, while the UAE is utilizing the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman coast. However, rerouted exports alone cannot replace the full volume, and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain the biggest variable for the global crude oil market.
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