U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iran is unlikely to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon, according to reports.
Reuters reported on Saturday, citing three anonymous sources. Iran is using its control over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's key oil transit routes, as virtually its only leverage against the United States, the sources said. Analysts say Iran's strategy of restricting passage through the strait to keep energy prices elevated could serve as a tool to pressure U.S. President Donald Trump into seeking an early exit from what could become an "unpopular war."
The war was initially intended to fundamentally weaken Iran's military capabilities, but observers note it may have instead highlighted Iran's ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially expanding its regional influence. Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said, "The U.S. sought to prevent Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction, but ended up handing it a weapon of mass disruption."
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump is "confident the strait will reopen soon" and has made clear he will not tolerate Iran controlling the waterway after the war. However, the official added that Trump has also noted that other countries have greater stakes in this issue than the United States.
Meanwhile, some vessels have recently succeeded in transiting the Strait of Hormuz. According to the British daily The Guardian, the ships included those from countries close to the West, such as France and Japan, in addition to China. The Kribi, a Malta-flagged container ship owned by French shipping company CMA CGM, reportedly activated its transponder near Dubai on May 28 before passing near Larak Island off the Iranian coast and exiting the Persian Gulf.
The Financial Times also reported that three tankers linked to Oman recently left the Persian Gulf. Reuters identified one of them as the Sohar, a Panama-flagged liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier operated by Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines.
Iran is expected to continue actively leveraging its control over the Strait of Hormuz going forward. Qatar-based satellite broadcaster Al Jazeera reported on the same day that Iran is reviewing a plan to classify countries into three groups — hostile, neutral, and friendly — and apply differentiated conditions for strait passage. Under the plan, ships linked to hostile nations such as the United States and Israel would be barred from passage, while neutral-country vessels would be subject to transit fees, the report said.