Since the outbreak of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, an unidentified group has suddenly emerged claiming responsibility for incidents across major Western European cities. Speculation has arisen that Iran may be employing "hybrid warfare" tactics designed to foment social unrest.
According to the Financial Times on Friday, a group calling itself "Ashab al-Yamin" or "Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya" first appeared on March 9 on a Telegram channel apparently linked to pro-Iranian armed groups in Iraq. The group declared it was "launching military operations against American and Israeli interest groups worldwide," then two days later claimed responsibility for a firebomb attack on a synagogue in Liège, Belgium.
On March 13, a synagogue in Rotterdam, Netherlands, was attacked, followed by a Jewish school in Amsterdam on March 14. An attack on a synagogue in Heemstede, Netherlands, was foiled on March 20. Dutch Justice Minister David van Weel told parliament at the time that investigators were "clearly looking into the possibility of an Iranian link." On March 23, several ambulances operated by a medical volunteer organization in London's Jewish community in North London were damaged by arson. Telegram channels claiming attacks on behalf of Ashab al-Yamin had previously posted content carrying Iranian government propaganda.
In the financial sector, a homemade bomb was discovered on March 28 outside the Paris office of Bank of America, prompting employees at other American banks in Paris, including Citibank and Goldman Sachs, to work from home. Earlier, on March 16, a Bank of New York Mellon branch in Amsterdam was targeted in a similar attack, with Ashab al-Yamin claiming responsibility. Julian Junk, a researcher at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, noted that the group "had no trace online or offline before March 9 this year," adding that "it is unusual for an organization to appear so abruptly." He said, "There is considerable doubt whether this is an actual terrorist group with an offline presence or internal structure. It could be an Iranian intelligence agency project."
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, said Iran has in the past hired criminal networks to harass or harm dissidents abroad and may have scaled up this approach. The Iranian embassy in the United Kingdom stated that "Iran, as a responsible state, always respects the principles of international law, including non-interference in internal affairs," and "denies any allegations of involvement in illegal acts against specific individuals in the UK."
However, concerns are growing that Iran is employing tactics similar to the hybrid warfare Russia has waged across Europe around the time of its war in Ukraine. In the Paris Bank of America case, one of three teenage suspects was recruited via Snapchat. A man in his twenties approached the suspect, claiming he wanted to get revenge on his girlfriend, and offered 500 to 1,000 euros (approximately 860,000 to 1.73 million won) in exchange for planting an explosive and filming it, according to France's Le Monde. Junk said this method of recruiting "disposable agents" cheaply through social media resembles Russia's hybrid warfare tactics, explaining that "the core objective of hybrid warfare in Europe is to foment social unrest and chaos."