U.S. President Donald Trump's national address amounted to little more than a rehash of his previous social media posts. The speech appeared designed on the assumption that Americans had not fully absorbed what he had been saying on Truth Social. In the process, the ceasefire plan the market had hoped for was never concretely presented. Instead, Trump offered only a vague timetable suggesting that an all-out assault on Iran over two to three weeks would force Tehran to surrender on its own. Disappointed global financial markets began churning once again. International oil prices surged anew amid ceasefire uncertainty, and third-party countries like South Korea found themselves bracing for damage to industry and livelihoods. Above all, fears spread across markets that the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world's crude oil shipments pass — could remain closed for an extended period. As the likelihood grew that Iran would impose transit fees on the strait, countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern crude, including South Korea, went on economic alert. South Korea did not directly participate in the Iran war, but as a U.S. military ally in principle, it could be classified as a supporting nation at any time and become a target for retaliation. Even without direct damage, any disruption to global shipping lanes would saddle countries with inflationary pressures far greater than they face now.
