Warnings are emerging that Iran's future trajectory could solidify into a North Korean-style "garrison state," contrary to the international community's expectations. Analysts say the situation is more likely to move in the opposite direction from what major Middle Eastern nations hope for.
H. A. Hellyer, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank, outlined three possible paths for Iran's future in a column published in Foreign Policy on June 1. He argued that the Middle Eastern landscape will shift significantly depending on which model Iran follows: Cuba, Syria, or North Korea.
Hellyer first explained that Persian Gulf states prefer a "Cuban model," in which Iran remains partially cut off from the outside world while maintaining internal control. Under this scenario, Iran's influence would gradually weaken and external threats would naturally diminish, he noted.
Israel, by contrast, appears to have a more radical scenario in mind. Its approach seeks to fundamentally neutralize Iran's regional influence through a "Syrian-style civil war" in which central government control weakens and military power fragments. This perspective accepts the possibility of state fragmentation or collapse, the analysis suggests.
However, Hellyer stressed that such expectations may diverge significantly from reality. "There is a considerable risk that Iran will follow a path similar to North Korea, rather than Cuba or Syria," he warned.
He argued that the most uncontrollable outcome could emerge when U.S. policy volatility intersects with conflicting interests within the Middle East. As external pressure intensifies, a "North Korean survival strategy" could take hold, in which the regime becomes increasingly rigid and military-centric structures are reinforced.
Under this scenario, Iran could be reshaped into a hardline garrison state that maintains its regime through nuclear capabilities and military power while accepting isolation. At the same time, a complex scenario in which some Syrian-style instability combines with internal fragmentation pressures cannot be ruled out.
"Whatever outcome Israel, the United States, and the Gulf states expect from this war, they may ultimately face a worse aftermath," Hellyer warned. "Strategies to contain Iran could produce even more dangerous results."