The war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — long seen as having no exit — is showing signs of ending within two to three weeks by the will of President Donald Trump. With no clear objective gains from the war, Trump has been repeatedly claiming that "Iran's regime has already been replaced," effectively crafting his own justification for ending hostilities. Trump is also constructing a narrative that shifts blame for the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — which handles roughly 20% of global oil traffic — onto uncooperative allies such as Europe. His posture appears to be one of maximizing leverage through ground forces and additional aircraft carrier deployments, then wrapping up the war at a convenient point while setting aside the shock to international logistics and financial markets. The direction of global financial markets will hinge on how specific a war-ending plan Trump presents in his nationally televised address on the Iran war, scheduled for 9 p.m. local time on the 1st (10 a.m. KST on the 2nd).
