Simultaneous signals of retreat from both the United States and Iran have brought the war to the doorstep of a ceasefire. However, a "self-declared ceasefire" — in which each side claims victory — appears increasingly likely, leaving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy artery, uncertain. With significant damage to oil and gas production facilities in Iran and Gulf states, the aftermath is expected to linger even after hostilities end. The prospect of a formal ceasefire declaration itself remains unclear amid continued armed clashes.
On March 31 (local time), leaders of both the U.S. and Iran sent ceasefire signals, raising expectations that the war could soon come to a halt. U.S. President Donald Trump said at the White House in Washington, D.C., "They (Iran) don't need to make a deal with me." This marks a shift from the previous dynamic, in which Iran countered every time Trump suggested a ceasefire deal with Iran was near by insisting it was "not negotiating with the United States." Trump's mention of a specific timeline of "within two to three weeks" for ending military operations against Iran is also read as a positive signal toward a ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also appeared to build justification for ending hostilities, saying Israel had inflicted "five catastrophes" on Iran, including strikes on its nuclear program and elimination of its leadership.
Iran, which had denied negotiations were taking place, also began sending new messages. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, "It's not negotiations — we exchanged messages," while President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran "has the will necessary to end the conflict." Iran still maintains its existing ceasefire conditions — a complete halt to aggression and assassinations, prevention of war recurrence, and payment of reparations — but behind-the-scenes dialogue conducted through mediators such as Pakistan appears to have found traction even amid U.S. threats of a ground offensive.
Notably, China, which had been siding with Iran, has also joined Pakistan in launching mediation efforts. The two countries issued a ceasefire proposal under their foreign ministers' names, with key elements including an immediate ceasefire, peace talks involving Middle Eastern nations, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude, which had climbed to near $120 per barrel on ceasefire expectations, briefly dipped below $100 during trading on April 1. The three major New York stock indexes also posted their largest gains since October last year.
However, military tensions continue. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) designated major U.S. and United Arab Emirates corporations as "key factors of terrorism," warning that "for every assassination that occurs after April 1, one corporation will be destroyed." Big tech firms including Apple, Google, and Microsoft, as well as JPMorgan, were placed on the target list.
Iran's reclusive Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei sent a letter to Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem, stating he would "continue to support resistance against Israel and the United States."
Yemen's Houthi rebels, a pro-Iran armed faction alongside Hezbollah, continued military attacks against Israel on the same day. Chechen forces backed by Russia also signaled they would enter the war on Iran's side. The Chechen forces are led by Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The United States also dispatched a third aircraft carrier to the theater. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and its escort group departed Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia and began heading toward the Middle East.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sent shockwaves through the global economy, remains uncertain regardless of a ceasefire. Trump, who posted on Truth Social the previous day that "countries running short on oil should come to Hormuz and get it themselves," reiterated on this day that "the Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with the United States." However, U.S. national average gasoline prices have risen to $4.018 per gallon — the highest in three years and seven months since August 2022 — driven by surging oil prices from the Hormuz blockade. With midterm elections approaching in November, oil prices could become a vulnerability for Trump. In an interview with CBS, Trump assured that "the Strait of Hormuz will open automatically once the war ends." However, Politico reported that the White House is preparing contingency measures, acknowledging that oil prices are likely to remain above $100 for the time being.
Meanwhile, Trump signaled his intention to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) after allied nations failed to actively support the U.S. attack on Iran. In an interview with Britain's Telegraph, Trump said, "We are beyond the stage of reconsidering NATO membership," adding, "I was never influenced by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger."
