As tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran fuel volatility in global financial markets, large-scale trades were executed in the crude oil futures market just before U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of negotiations with Iran. The trades are drawing heightened suspicion amid a pattern of unusual trading activity repeatedly detected ahead of major U.S. government policy announcements, fueling broader concerns over potential insider trading.
According to the Financial Times on the 23rd (local time), approximately 6,200 Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts were traded between 6:49 a.m. and 6:50 a.m. Eastern Time. Based on Bloomberg data, the contracts are estimated to be worth approximately $580 million (about 870 billion won).
Notably, the trades were concentrated roughly 15 minutes before Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that there had been "productive talks" with Iran. Trump published the post at 7:04 a.m., after which selling pressure rapidly spread across global energy markets. The FT reported that "trading volume surged with just 27 seconds to go before 6:50 a.m." and that "it has not been established whether this was the action of a single entity or the simultaneous movement of multiple market participants."
Industry participants are raising significant questions. A market strategist at a U.S. brokerage said, "It is not easy to prove causation, but questions are bound to be raised about who had the incentive to aggressively sell futures 15 minutes before Trump's post went up." A hedge fund manager also said, "In 25 years of watching markets, this is a highly unusual pattern," adding, "It is difficult to explain trading of this scale on a Monday morning when there were no scheduled events such as major economic data releases or Federal Reserve officials' remarks." The manager added, "As a result, someone may have reaped substantial profits."
The case is amplifying market suspicions as large-scale trades have been repeatedly detected around U.S. policy announcements in recent months. Earlier, a user on the prediction market Polymarket attracted attention for placing a roughly $34,000 bet that "the U.S. would invade Venezuela by January." Because the bet was placed just before the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, suspicions were raised that insider information from the Trump administration may have been used.
However, some caution against over-interpreting the situation. Tim Sherrow, head of derivatives at energy consultancy Energy Aspects, said, "The trading volume was larger than usual for that time of day, but it is difficult to call it excessive," adding, "It is not easy to establish a single causal link from individual circumstances." He continued, "Over the past few weeks, there has been a significant inflow of capital into the Brent futures and options markets, and most investors were holding long positions," adding, "When positions are skewed in one direction like this, even a small trigger can cause prices to move sharply."
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