Iran is defying President Donald Trump's ultimatum to surrender within 48 hours, launching ballistic missiles at targets 4,000 kilometers away in the Indian Ocean and bringing Europe within striking distance.
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 20th (local time) that Iran's missile forces fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) at the Diego Garcia joint US-UK military base, located approximately 4,000 km from Iranian territory. The missiles failed to hit their targets—one malfunctioned mid-flight and the other was intercepted by a US Navy destroyer, according to US authorities. Diego Garcia, situated on a remote island in the British Indian Ocean Territory, is a strategic base where the US has deployed bombers, nuclear submarines, and guided-missile destroyers.
Despite the failed strike, the international community is alarmed that Iran demonstrated IRBM launch capability. This marks Iran's first actual use of IRBMs. Just last month, Iranian leadership claimed its missile range was limited to 2,000 km—an implicit promise not to attack European nations. That position has now been abandoned, placing all of Europe within targeting range. Most major European countries, including the UK and France, fall within the 4,000 km radius.
The threat appears linked to recent European military cooperation with the United States. According to the Daily Mail, the UK recently deployed a nuclear-powered submarine armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles and torpedoes to the Arabian Sea. The British government had previously authorized US use of UK bases for strikes on Iranian facilities. Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the Atlantic Council, assessed that "Iran's decision-making process is moving in an increasingly extreme direction."
As Trump's pressure increases global involvement against Iran, the IRBM launches pose a tangible threat to many nations. Japan announced it is considering deploying Self-Defense Forces for mine clearance after a ceasefire.
Iran's surprise counterattack contradicts expectations from both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. On the 20th, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US is "considering ways to wind down the massive military effort in the Middle East against Iran's terrorist regime." Netanyahu, in his second press conference since the war began on the 19th, also mentioned the possibility of an early end to hostilities.
However, Iran has countered every US attempt to disengage. In response to Trump's ultimatum threatening to destroy power plants unless Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, Iran warned it would "attack US and Israeli energy, IT, and desalination infrastructure in the Middle East." Iran also threatened retaliation against Ras Al Khaimah in the northern UAE if the UAE moves with the US to seize the disputed Abu Musa and Greater Tunb islands near the strait.
Simultaneously, Iran is conducting a diversionary operation by signaling it will open the Strait of Hormuz to countries other than the United States. Ali Mousavi, Iran's representative to the International Maritime Organization, told the semi-official Mehr News Agency on the 22nd that "passage is possible after coordination with the Iranian government on security and safety matters." Some vessels have reportedly paid $2 million in transit fees.
Faced with this unexpected reality, the US is adding to confusion with contradictory moves. Despite Trump's suggestion of ending operations, the US is expanding troop deployments in preparation for a potential ground war in Iran. Natural gas power plants producing 80% of Iran's electricity are reportedly the next US targets. Reuters noted that "the Iran war has slipped from Trump's hands" and that "he cannot escape the quagmire he created himself."
Netanyahu, who had mentioned early war termination, also reversed course: "Iran is threatening the entire world. It is time for other countries to join the war, and some already have."
Iran still holds an ace: Yemen's Houthi rebels. With Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern countries are exporting oil via the Red Sea detour. The Houthis previously paralyzed Red Sea shipping during the Gaza war, triggering a global energy crisis. If the Houthis join this conflict, both the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea energy logistics could be completely cut off.
As escalation risks grow, the global economic impact is expected to intensify. Japan has entered negotiations with Iran over passage of Japanese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, following China in seeking solutions to the energy paralysis. The Financial Times reported that the last LNG tanker to depart the Middle East will reach its destination in ten days—meaning Gulf LNG supplies could be cut off within that timeframe.
