The Donald Trump administration, which has been pressuring Iran, is now demanding the resignation of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, 65.
On the 16th (local time), The New York Times reported, citing sources, that the Trump administration is presenting Díaz-Canel's resignation as a key condition for negotiations. According to the report, some within the Trump administration have labeled Díaz-Canel as a hardliner pessimistic about U.S.-Cuba negotiations, arguing that "his departure could bring about economic change in Cuba." The NYT added that the U.S. is also demanding the removal of senior officials aligned with the ideology of Fidel Castro, who led the 1959 Cuban Revolution, and the release of political prisoners.
The NYT analyzed that this attempt to oust President Díaz-Canel aligns with the Trump administration's approach of inducing "regime submission" in target countries. Rather than completely overturning the system itself, the strategy aims to shift the regime's direction toward a more U.S.-friendly stance by removing symbolic figures. A representative example is the arrest and extradition of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to the United States in January. The NYT noted, "The Trump administration is pursuing a plan to gradually open Cuba's economy to American companies and turn it into a dependent state, while achieving the external success of having 'toppled a leftist president.'"
The U.S. has used the blockade of Cuba's foreign oil imports as negotiating leverage. Following President Maduro's arrest, even Venezuelan oil supplies were cut off. At a press conference on the 13th, President Díaz-Canel acknowledged for the first time that negotiations with the U.S. government were taking place, stating that "there have been no oil imports for three months" and that energy is being supplied only through solar power and natural gas. Indeed, according to Cuba's Ministry of Energy and Mines, the national power grid was completely disconnected that day. As a result, 10 million people are reportedly suffering from blackouts.
However, questions are being raised about whether the Trump administration can drive Cuba's economic transformation through Díaz-Canel's ouster. Although he became the first "non-Castro" president since the Cuban Revolution, the prevailing assessment is that the Castro family still holds real power in Cuba. Former President Raúl Castro, 94, is said to be exerting influence behind the scenes. In fact, Cuba's negotiations with the U.S. are reportedly being led by Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of former President Raúl Castro. If President Díaz-Canel steps down, Raúl Guillermo Castro, who is handling the negotiations, is expected to lead the government.
For this reason, analysts suggest the Trump administration may be aiming only for the symbolic effect of ousting the current head of state rather than substantive change in Cuba.
Meanwhile, at an executive order signing ceremony that day, President Trump expressed strong confidence in the Cuba negotiations, saying, "I will have the honor of taking Cuba." When asked whether that would be diplomatic or military, he replied, "I think I can do whatever I want." However, the NYT reported, citing sources, that a military attack on Cuba is unlikely.
