Iran Expands Attacks to Arabian Sea as Oil Price Surge Defies Trump's Confidence

U.S. President Donald Trump expressed confidence on May 11 (local time) that the coordinated release of 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves by 32 International Energy Agency member countries "will significantly lower international oil prices and end the threat of Iranian attacks against the United States and the world."

"We (the United States and Israel) have already won, but we must finish the mission," Trump said, taking a harder line than before.

However, oil prices hit $100 again during trading on May 12, showing the reserve release effect lasted less than a day. Observers now suggest Iran, which controls the Strait of Hormuz, could persistently target America's Achilles' heel as Washington scrambles to calm oil prices.

Iran, which had previously limited attacks to areas near the Strait of Hormuz, is expanding its range to include the Persian Gulf and waters off Oman connected to the Arabian Sea. Iraqi port authorities announced that two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil caught fire after an unidentified attack at Iraq's Basra port, located 800 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz.

A large fuel storage tank at Oman's Salalah port, outside the strait, also caught fire following a drone attack suspected to be of Iranian origin. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a Thai-flagged bulk carrier near Oman's coast.

Iran has reportedly adopted a "prior notification first" principle for Strait of Hormuz passage and is allowing ships from friendly nations such as India and Bangladesh to transit. China has also requested Iran permit passage through the strait.

Iran's selective strategy—releasing some vessels while blocking others—raises concerns that oil and gas transport disruptions could be prolonged. Alternative routes bypassing the blocked strait may also face Iranian threats. Iranian forces have been conducting "maritime terror" across the entire Persian Gulf, pressuring the United States and Israel.

U.S. plans to escort tankers through the strait are also encountering difficulties. Reuters quoted a source saying, "Ensuring tanker safety would require extensive control of Iran's coastline, but there aren't enough naval vessels to achieve this." Iran's expansion of control across the Gulf coast appears designed partly to prevent U.S. escort operations. Reuters also warned of significant risks from swarm attacks by Iranian speedboats or drones during escort missions, with sea mines posing additional dangers.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump's proposal to provide maritime insurance support to clear the logistics bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz is struggling against reality. While Trump promised to provide political risk insurance at reasonable prices for all commercial vessels alongside U.S. Navy escorts, the nature of maritime war insurance means insurers are currently refusing coverage even at high prices.

Iran's strategy of narrowing shipping lanes continues to inflict growing damage on global energy markets. According to Citigroup, the Strait of Hormuz blockade is reducing daily crude oil supply by up to 16 million barrels. Some analyses suggest the supply shortfall could reach 20 million barrels. Goldman Sachs projected that "if the current situation continues through the end of this month, oil prices will exceed $147."

Critics inside and outside the United States are beginning to suggest the Trump administration made a miscalculation by placing high expectations on the IEA reserve release. Macquarie Group noted that "400 million barrels represents only four days of global daily production and 16 days of crude oil traffic through the Gulf." Due to pipeline and terminal limitations, actual release is possible at only 3 to 5 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran's Parchin military base nuclear facility, known as "Taleghan 2," may have suffered significant damage from Israeli airstrikes. David Albright, director of the Institute for Science and International Security, posted satellite images on X showing "three holes visible in the soil layer covering the facility's roof," claiming "Taleghan 2 may have been attacked and its internal structures destroyed."

Taleghan 2 is a site where activities linked to Iran's past nuclear weapons program may have occurred. Although restored after sustaining considerable damage from Israeli attacks in 2024, observers suggest it may have suffered major damage again in this attack.