Oil Price Surge Hits U.S. Swing States Hardest Ahead of Midterms

Rising oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran are hitting American swing states particularly hard, raising concerns for President Donald Trump and Republicans ahead of November's midterm elections.

Three of the four U.S. states with the largest weekly diesel price increases are Senate battleground states, according to an analysis by GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan cited by Axios on the 10th (local time). Texas saw diesel prices jump 111.6 cents per gallon (1 gallon equals 3.78 liters) in a single week, followed by North Carolina at 110.5 cents and Georgia at 107.9 cents.

Texas, traditionally a Republican stronghold, has become increasingly competitive. While Democrats have unified behind state Representative James Talarico, a rising star in his 30s, Republicans remain divided and have postponed their final candidate selection to a May 26 runoff. Major news outlets project Republicans will retain their Senate majority while Democrats recapture the House in the midterms. However, Republican losses in the Senate could deal a significant blow to President Trump.

Regular gasoline prices in battleground states Ohio and Michigan rose 55 cents per gallon in one week—tied for the third-largest increase among all 50 states. A month ago, only nine states had gasoline prices exceeding $3 per gallon; now 48 states have crossed that threshold, according to GasBuddy. The national average gasoline price reached $3.55 per gallon, up 61 cents from a month earlier.

With cost of living emerging as a central campaign issue, concerns are mounting that rising oil prices will drive broader inflation. Higher fuel costs affect shipping, airline fuel surcharges and ticket prices, and manufacturing costs for essential goods.

"Eight months until the election is enough time to overcome the oil shock," De Haan said. "But if President Trump doesn't change course, it could create a situation Americans will remember."

Trump has responded sensitively to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, which controls oil flows. When prices approached $120 per barrel on the 9th, he mentioned an "exit," saying "military operations are nearly complete." On the 10th, he warned: "If Iran lays mines in the Strait of Hormuz, they will face consequences they have never seen."