Israel is preparing a large-scale military offensive spanning several weeks, according to foreign media reports, amid growing concerns that the military conflict between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran could escalate into a prolonged war. Analysts suggest the strategy goes beyond simple retaliation, aiming to neutralize Iran's theocratic system and its core power base, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), ultimately collapsing the regime's governing capacity.
The Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing a senior Israeli military official, that "Israel's goal is to dismantle the military infrastructure of the Iranian regime, including the IRGC." The official said, "We are preparing for a long-term operation that will last several weeks," adding that Iran's nuclear facilities, military production sites, and space and cyber capabilities are among the primary targets.
Israel's military operation has reportedly entered its third phase. The first phase was the initial airstrike targeting Iranian leadership in Tehran on April 28. The second phase focused on intensive strikes against ballistic missiles, drones, and air defense systems over approximately 100 hours. The current phase marks a shift toward directly targeting the core capabilities of the Iranian regime. A former senior Israeli official said, "The third phase will require considerable time," adding, "There is much to be done. Iran is a very large country."
Analysts suggest Israel's willingness to commit to a prolonged conflict reflects a strategic intent to shake the very foundation of the Iranian regime's power. Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), explained, "Israel's ultimate goal is to neutralize all the key pillars supporting the system—the IRGC, the Basij militia, and the regime's strategic military capabilities." He added, "Ultimately, it aims to completely collapse the regime."
Citrinowicz continued, "Eliminating Iran's ability to threaten Israel, including its missile capabilities and nuclear program, is a clear objective." However, he noted, "More importantly, it is about weakening the regime to force it to confront internal problems." This suggests Israel has in mind scenarios that could trigger internal power struggles, mass protests, or even civil war.
Some analysts point out this approach reveals strategic differences with the United States. While Washington is relatively more concerned about post-war state reconstruction and the impact on the security environment of Middle Eastern allies, Israel appears less concerned about the stability of the Iranian regime or future political order. Indeed, key Trump administration figures including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have recently refrained from using the term "regime change" in connection with this military operation.
Within Israel, there is reportedly a strong consensus that this operation should fundamentally eliminate long-term security threats. An Israeli official said, "Israel aims to thoroughly destroy the Iranian regime's military capabilities so that repeated conflicts no longer occur."
