BEIJING — China's largest political event, the Two Sessions (Lianghui), officially opened Tuesday amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Beijing described the U.S.-China relationship as a "historical revelation" that the two nations should become friends, despite Washington's attacks on China's longtime ally Iran.
Analysts say China appears to be calibrating its criticism of the United States ahead of President Donald Trump's scheduled visit from March 31 to April 2.
At a press briefing ahead of the Two Sessions opening at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, National People's Congress spokesman Lou Qinjian said, "U.S.-China relations are showing an overall stable and improving trend. China is willing to strengthen communication at all levels and expand cooperation space with the United States."
Lou emphasized that "President Xi Jinping has stressed that it is both a historical revelation and a realistic requirement for the two countries to become partners and friends," adding that "summit diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in China-U.S. relations."
The remarks appear aimed at addressing speculation that Trump's visit could be canceled due to the war. Since the U.S. began airstrikes on Iran on February 28, China has largely refrained from sharp criticism of Washington.
When news of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death emerged on March 1, Beijing waited 14 hours before issuing a principled statement about "sovereignty violation." Analysts interpret the delay as careful deliberation over messaging ahead of Trump's visit.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi subsequently held phone calls with his counterparts from Iran, France, and Oman, positioning China as a mediator. However, observers note Beijing did not take Iran's side.
Experts say China is avoiding provoking the United States despite severe threats to its oil supply. China has long procured crude oil below international prices from sanctioned countries including Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, reducing manufacturing costs. This cost advantage fueled last year's low-price export offensive, helping maintain 5% economic growth amid weak domestic demand.
However, successive U.S. strikes on Venezuela and Iran have cast doubt on this strategy's sustainability. Iranian crude accounts for 13.4% of China's seaborne oil imports — three times Venezuela's 4.7% share. Roughly one-third of China's oil imports pass through the now-blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
A prolonged blockade would also disrupt methanol supplies, a critical raw material for basic chemicals. Iran accounts for 45% of China's methanol imports. Chinese financial outlet Sina Finance warned that "closing the Strait of Hormuz would deliver a 'triple shock' of commodity disruption, surging costs, and logistics paralysis — far beyond just rising oil prices."
Beijing's restrained response appears designed to minimize variables in U.S. relations ahead of Trump's visit. According to Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Commerce Minister He Lifeng plan to meet in Paris mid-month for preliminary coordination.
Analysts say both sides are eager to secure tangible gains from the summit. China particularly wants U.S. concessions on Taiwan, including weapons sales, roughly a year before the 21st National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which will determine whether Xi secures a fourth term.
At Tuesday's briefing, Lou reiterated that Taiwan is "China's internal affair and the core of core interests."
The Two Sessions' main highlight will be Premier Li Qiang's government work report at Wednesday's NPC opening ceremony. Key economic targets, consumption and real estate measures, and defense budget figures will be announced.
Markets are watching whether Beijing will maintain its GDP growth target at "around 5%" or lower it to a record-low 4.5-5.0% range amid economic slowdown.
This year's sessions run eight days — one more than last year — with the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference closing March 11 and the NPC on March 12.