US Fires $60M Missiles to Down $30K Drones in Iran War of Attrition

The military conflict between Iran and the US-Israel alliance is evolving into a war of attrition, pitting cheap attack drones against expensive interceptor missiles. Iran's offensive using low-cost weapons is straining the air defense networks of the US and its Gulf allies, leading some observers to suggest the war's outcome may hinge on weapons stockpiles and cost burdens.

Bloomberg reported Monday that Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones and small cruise missiles are being deployed in successive waves targeting key facilities across the Middle East.

These drones have intensively targeted US military bases, oil facilities, and civilian buildings since the US and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on April 28.

US-made Patriot air defense missiles have proven their effectiveness, intercepting more than 90% of Iran's Shahed drones and ballistic missiles. However, the scenario of firing interceptor missiles costing $4 million each to shoot down $20,000 drones has been a dilemma plaguing Western military strategists since the early days of the Ukraine war.

Cheap weapons are effectively depleting critical resources that should be reserved for far more complex threats.

Bloomberg analyzed that whichever side endures longer in this war of attrition will likely gain the upper hand.

Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said Iran's attrition strategy "makes operational sense from their perspective." She added it is "a calculation to exhaust defenders' interceptor missiles and break the political will of Gulf states, pressuring the US and Israel to halt military operations."

According to internal analysis obtained by Bloomberg, Qatar's Patriot interceptor missile stockpile would last only four days at the current rate of use.

Questions are also being raised about whether the US has deployed sufficient ammunition in the Middle East for prolonged operations. Lockheed Martin's PAC-3 Patriot air defense system production last year was reportedly around 600 units, while interceptor missiles fired in the Middle East since the war began are estimated to already number in the thousands.

Concerns are mounting that if Iran maintains its current offensive intensity, PAC-3 stockpiles in the Middle East could fall to dangerous levels within days, potentially leading to a stalemate as both sides run out of offensive weapons.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth drew a line at a press conference Monday, stating "this war is different from the Iraq War and will not become an endless war."

It remains uncertain when Iran's airstrike capabilities will be depleted despite continuous destruction of military assets by the US and Israel. Iran, estimated to have possessed about 2,000 ballistic missiles during its "12-day war" with Israel last June, is believed to have stockpiled far more Shahed drones.

Iran's drone production capacity is another variable. Some Western security experts estimate Iran can produce 400 Shahed-series drones per day.

Becca Basser, defense director at Bloomberg Economics, said "Iran has fired more than 1,200 projectiles since the conflict began this year, most of which are believed to be Shahed drones." She added this "means they are conserving the more destructive ballistic missiles for sustained attacks."

Meanwhile, Iran's air defense network has been weakened. Surface-to-air systems including Russian-made S-300s were largely destroyed early in the war, reportedly allowing US and Israeli fighter jets to cross Iranian airspace without constraint.