Iran is mounting an unexpectedly sophisticated defense against joint US-Israeli airstrikes, deploying low-cost drones to exhaust neighboring countries' expensive interceptor missiles.
President Donald Trump, who initially set a one-week timeline for the air campaign, is now signaling a medium-to-long-term conflict of "four to five weeks plus." The situation increasingly resembles another "Middle East quagmire" following the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
"I don't care how long it takes. We will do whatever it takes," Trump said at a White House event on May 2 local time. He added that "we have the capability to sustain this much longer than four to five weeks from the start."
In an interview with the New York Post, Trump said "I have no qualms about ground troops," only to reverse course hours later, stating "ground troops will not be necessary." The mixed signals revealed confusion in the administration's approach to Iran.
On May 3, Trump wrote on social media: "Iran's air defense network, air force, navy and leadership are all gone. Iran wants to talk but it is too late."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that "the next phase will be far more painful for Iran than what we've seen so far." Meanwhile, Israeli forces have deployed ground troops to southern Lebanon, citing the armed group Hezbollah's entry into the conflict.
The US has begun preparations for an extended campaign. The State Department issued travel warnings for 14 Middle Eastern locations including Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, urging American citizens to leave immediately. On May 3, the administration also announced policies to reduce energy cost burdens in anticipation of rising oil prices.
Iran, meanwhile, is pursuing a strategy of attrition—launching cheap drones and low-grade missiles at US military bases, embassies and energy facilities in neighboring countries to deplete expensive interceptor missiles. The approach resembles Ukraine's so-called "swarm tactics" used against Russia.
On May 3, two drones believed to have been sent by Iran struck and burned the US embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Iran has also raised the prospect of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Major General Ebrahim Jabbari of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned: "Any vessel that attempts to pass through the Strait of Hormuz will be set ablaze."