A prolonged Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could severely disrupt South Korea's power supply and exports, according to a U.S. think tank analysis released as Tehran effectively shut down the critical waterway in response to major joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes.
James Kim, director of the Korea Program at the Stimson Center, wrote in a report posted on the organization's website Monday that approximately 70% of South Korea's crude oil imports and up to 30% of its natural gas come from the Middle East region where the Strait of Hormuz is located.
Kim noted that these two resources account for more than 56% of South Korea's energy consumption. "Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are major crude oil suppliers, while Oman and Qatar supply natural gas," he wrote.
Given that South Korea maintains strategic reserves of more than 100 million barrels of crude oil across nine storage facilities and 52 days' worth of liquefied natural gas, Kim assessed the country could weather a short-term disruption. However, he warned that a prolonged crisis could trigger cascading economic shocks.
Citing statistics from Korea's Overseas Koreans Agency, Kim noted that 17,823 South Koreans resided in the Middle East as of last year, with an additional 295,000 visiting the region annually, raising safety concerns for Korean nationals.
"With international shipping facing difficulties accessing the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged conflict would significantly impact not only South Korea's ability to maintain power supply but also its global supply chain capacity to manufacture and export products," Kim wrote.
Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, pointed out that approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, predicting oil prices are likely to surge.
"Historically, even a partial blockade—or simply insurers becoming wary about safe passage through the sea route—can cause oil prices to spike," Ashford said. "If the Iran war affects maritime shipping from other Gulf states, prices could easily soar, increasing the burden on consumers worldwide."
Christopher Preble, another senior fellow at the institution, criticized the war for proceeding without congressional approval or public debate. "It is unconstitutional, reckless, and a betrayal of the promise to put the interests of the American people first," Preble said.
Evan Cooper, a research analyst, expressed concern that "President Trump's rejection of diplomacy in favor of force will ultimately encourage nuclear proliferation and make adversaries hesitant to engage diplomatically with the United States."