Iran has vowed "the most destructive attack" in retaliation for the U.S. military strike, but appears to be avoiding a full-scale war with its archenemy Israel. Instead, Tehran is pursuing a "drizzle strategy" of localized, sustained provocations against neighboring Gulf states including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. This represents a new approach to maximize regional chaos and fatigue while circumventing Israel's formidable air defense systems. Amid this situation, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed he is "talking to a lot of people there (in Iran)," suggesting back-channel negotiations are underway. Whether Iran comes to the negotiating table is expected to depend on whether hardliners or moderates control the next regime.
Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council who has assumed de facto control of military and security affairs since the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared on his X account on June 2 (local time): "We will not negotiate with the United States." This directly rejected reports from The Wall Street Journal and other U.S. media outlets that Iran has been attempting contact with Washington through Omani mediation.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a core organization of the Iranian regime, also identified the U.S. and Israel as Khamenei's "killers," vowing to "deliver harsh, decisive punishment that will make those who killed the Imam of the Ummah regret their actions." Natanz in Isfahan province, home to Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities, reportedly suffered damage from U.S. airstrikes on June 1.
Iran launched immediate counterattacks when U.S. airstrikes began on May 28. Hezbollah, Iran's ally, announced on June 2 that it had fired rockets and drones at Israel overnight. Iran's state-run Tasnim News Agency claimed Iranian forces shot down a U.S. F-15 fighter jet. In Saudi Arabia, the Ras Tanura refinery—the kingdom's largest—halted operations over fire concerns after an Iranian drone attack. Iran's counterattacks and those of the "Axis of Resistance" are notably concentrated on neighboring Gulf states rather than Israel. Foreign media also assessed this round of Iranian retaliation as weaker than last June's attacks.
The Financial Times attributed this to lessons learned from the "12-day war" in June last year. Iran then focused retaliatory strikes on Israel, but more than 90% were intercepted by Israel's dense air defense network. However, Iran's new strategy is worsening its isolation. Foreign ministers of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, including the UAE and Oman, held a video conference on June 1 to condemn Iran's "treacherous attacks."
Some analysts suggest Iran may engage in dialogue with the United States. In an interview with The Atlantic on the same day, President Trump said: "They (Iran's new leadership) want to talk. I'm going to talk to them." He did not disclose who the new leadership is or when talks would occur.
Whether Iran comes to the negotiating table will depend on who takes control of Iranian politics after Khamenei. While the U.S. is encouraging regime change by stoking anti-government protests inside Iran, concerns are growing that hardliners centered on the military could instead return to power.
Iran is currently led by an interim leadership under President Masoud Pezeshkian, with plans to select a new supreme leader within one to two days. Three individuals reportedly designated by Khamenei as candidates are: Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, chief justice of the Supreme Court; Asgar Hejazi, chief of staff to the Supreme Leader; and Hassan Khomeini, grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic. Additionally, Larijani, who has emerged as Iran's de facto power broker since Khamenei's death, and Reza Pahlavi—eldest son of exiled former Shah Mohammad Pahlavi living in the United States—are also mentioned. Despite much speculation, it remains difficult to predict who will be chosen. In an interview with The New York Times on June 1, President Trump responded to the question of who would lead Iran by saying: "There are three very good choices," adding, "I'm not going to say who they are right now."
Middle East experts believe a collective leadership system centered on the IRGC is the most likely outcome. Jonathan Panikoff, a researcher at the Atlantic Council, assessed: "The collapse of the Iranian regime is unlikely to lead to democracy and more likely to result in a military system with the IRGC fully in control." Even if a symbolic new supreme leader is installed, power would still rest with the IRGC, according to this analysis.