Oil Tankers Stranded at Sea as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Supply Chains

As the U.S.-Israel war against Iran enters its second day, concerns mount over potential impacts on the global economy. Major shipping companies are reducing cargo shipments to the Middle East, raising fears that a prolonged conflict could drive up energy costs and disrupt global supply chains.

Shipping Companies Impose 'War Surcharges' as European LNG May Rise 25%

According to Bloomberg on Wednesday (local time), MSC, the world's largest shipping company, has suspended cargo bookings to the Middle East. Denmark's Maersk, the second-largest carrier, and Germany's Hapag-Lloyd have also halted all operations through the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping disruptions are spreading beyond the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Maersk announced it would suspend some vessels' Red Sea routes, anticipating that Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen may resume attacks on ships. The Red Sea is a critical passage connecting Asia and the Middle East to Europe via the Suez Canal. Without access, vessels must detour thousands of kilometers around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. Hapag-Lloyd and France's CMA CGM announced emergency war surcharges on cargo traveling to and from the Persian Gulf.

Reuters reported that at least 150 tankers carrying crude oil and liquefied natural gas are anchored in international waters in the Persian Gulf, unable to exit through the Strait of Hormuz. Dozens more are waiting off Oman's coast.

UAE Stock Exchange Closes for Two Days; Defense and Energy Stocks Expected to Rise

Energy prices are showing signs of climbing. The Financial Times reported that experts anticipate oil prices could surge 5-15% when New York markets open Wednesday evening (Thursday morning Korea time) due to the Hormuz Strait blockade. Bloomberg Intelligence projected that natural gas prices in the European Union and United Kingdom could rise at least 25% as LNG shortages intensify competition with Asian markets.

Markets are already reacting. Major stock indices in Saudi Arabia and Egypt fell more than 2% on Wednesday, and Bitcoin dropped approximately 2%. The United Arab Emirates announced its stock exchange would close Thursday and Friday. U.S. stocks, Treasury bonds, oil, and gold futures opened at 6 p.m. local time (8 a.m. Thursday Korea time).

"Energy and defense stocks are likely to rise when markets open," said Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management.

Saudi Aramco shares rose 3.4% on Wednesday, marking the largest single-day gain in four months.

South Korea could face significant impacts. James Kim, director of the Korea Program at the Stimson Center, wrote in a report: "Approximately 70% of South Korea's crude oil imports and up to 30% of natural gas come from the Middle East region where the Strait of Hormuz is located. A prolonged conflict would likely significantly affect Korea's ability not only to maintain power supplies but also to produce and export products in global supply chains."

Only 27% of Americans Support War; Prolonged Conflict Risks Higher Gas Prices and Inflation

President Donald Trump has signaled interest in an exit strategy. In an interview with The Atlantic, he said: "They [Iran's new leadership] want to talk, and I agreed to talk. I will talk with them."

Since initiating military action against Iran, Trump has given only brief media interviews and posted messages on Truth Social, avoiding public appearances. However, in a video message released Wednesday afternoon, he stated: "The attack on Iran will continue until all objectives are achieved."

Trump appears unlikely to favor a prolonged conflict. Extended hostilities could send oil prices soaring and turn public sentiment ahead of November's midterm elections. His party already suffered defeats in local elections held since late last year amid cost-of-living concerns. Supply chain disruptions would likely push prices higher.

American support for this war trails levels seen during the Iraq War. A Politico survey found 41% agreed the U.S.-Israel attack was necessary, while 42% said diplomatic efforts should have continued. YouGov polling showed 32% supporting military action versus 39% opposed. A Reuters survey found only 27% in favor and 43% against.