Four civilian vessels have been attacked in waters near the Strait of Hormuz since Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began enforcing a blockade of the strategic waterway.
As fighting between the U.S.-Israel coalition and Iran intensifies, tensions across Middle Eastern shipping lanes have reached their peak. Concerns are mounting that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global energy transport—could deal a significant blow to the world economy.
According to BBC and other outlets on June 1 local time, the Palau-flagged cargo ship Skylight was attacked approximately 5 nautical miles (9 km) north of Khasab port in Omani territory adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz, injuring four crew members. The vessel was carrying 15 Indian and 5 Iranian crew members, all of whom reportedly evacuated safely. Iranian state television reported the ship "was attacked while attempting illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz and is currently sinking."
On the same day, the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker MKD VYOM came under projectile attack approximately 50 nautical miles north of Muscat, Oman's capital, causing an engine room fire. Two additional vessels near United Arab Emirates waters were also reportedly hit or exposed to explosion threats.
The IRGC had announced it would enforce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. The subsequent attacks on civilian ships have rapidly escalated regional tensions. The Guardian reported that "tankers are being observed waiting on both sides of the strait via maritime tracking sites due to attack concerns and difficulties securing insurance."
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy corridor through which approximately 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil passes. While scenarios of a full Iranian blockade have been raised during past Middle East conflicts, prolonged transit disruptions have been rare. However, analysts note that crisis levels have intensified to unprecedented degrees this time, given the conflict's severity—including the death of Iran's supreme leader in an airstrike. Goldman Sachs warned that "sustained oil supply disruptions could deal a significant blow to global economic growth."
East Asian economies including South Korea, China, and Japan are particularly vulnerable to direct impact, analysts say, due to low energy self-sufficiency and high dependence on Middle Eastern crude. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 84% of crude oil and 83% of liquefied natural gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 was destined for Asia, with China, India, and Japan as primary destinations. NHK reported that "more than 90% of Japan's crude oil imports depend on the Middle East," adding that "in a worst-case scenario, Japan's gross domestic product could decline by approximately 3%."
Even if strait transit resumes, full normalization could take considerable time. Alan Gelder, senior vice president at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, told the Wall Street Journal: "Even in an optimistic scenario where Iran cooperates with the U.S. on nuclear negotiations, it could take weeks for oil-producing countries to fully restore shipments."
A prolonged blockade would inevitably shock oil-producing nations' production systems, analysts say. JPMorgan estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, Middle Eastern oil producers would be unable to export their crude, potentially filling onshore storage facilities to capacity within 25 days. Production cuts or shutdowns would then become unavoidable due to lack of storage space.