China has assessed that the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from US airstrikes is unlikely to lead to regime collapse. At the same time, Beijing predicted the United States would face difficulties controlling Iranian retaliation.
According to Global Times on the 1st, Chinese experts analyzed that while the death of Iran's supreme leader would deliver a major shock to the Islamic Republic, the established succession structure makes regime collapse unlikely. They also forecast that the airstrikes would create tensions difficult for the US to control, deepen international distrust and anxiety, and further damage America's global standing.
Ding Long, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University's Middle East Studies Institute, said, "The deaths of Khamenei and several senior military officials will accelerate Iran's retaliation and lead to broader and more powerful responses."
Liu Zhongmin, also a professor at the university's Middle East Studies Institute, stated, "With succession plans already in place, Iran was likely prepared for scenarios involving the supreme leader's death."
He added, "If Iran's retaliatory attacks inflict greater damage on the US and Israel and escalate tensions, it will be a significant test for the Trump administration." He continued, "The US will try to maximize pressure and strikes while avoiding a prolonged conflict, but whether it can actually maintain control remains uncertain."
While issuing these negative forecasts, China also called for a halt to military action. Fu Cong, China's ambassador to the United Nations, said at an emergency meeting at UN headquarters in New York the previous day, "It is shocking that a military attack occurred while diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran were underway." He added, "We urge an immediate halt to military action to prevent further escalation."
This reaffirmed China's principled position expressed in a Foreign Ministry statement on the 28th of last month, when news of the US airstrikes on Iran first broke. The statement declared, "Iran's national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity must be respected," and urged "an immediate halt to military operations, prevention of escalating tensions, resumption of dialogue and negotiations, and maintenance of peace and stability in the Middle East."
While Chinese authorities refrained from taking positions beyond principled diplomatic statements, state media launched direct criticism targeting the United States. On the day of the airstrikes, Xinhua News Agency stated in a commentary, "The US has repeatedly demonstrated hegemonic behavior under the pretext of protecting its own security, interfering in the internal affairs of sovereign nations and forcibly pursuing regime change in various regions of the world." It added, "Militaristic hegemony will inevitably backfire."
