Concerns are mounting that the surprise U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran could send significant shockwaves through the global economy. As worries grow over potential maritime disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—known as a critical chokepoint for energy transportation—analysts warn that a sharp rise in oil prices could fuel inflationary pressures and affect monetary policy paths in major economies.
According to the New York Times on the 28th (local time), ship-tracking platform MarineTraffic reported that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by approximately 70%. The firm said most ships in the area are either rerouting or waiting near the Gulf of Oman. Analyst Dimitris Ampachidis said, "Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar face the greatest risk," adding that "more than half of their crude oil and LNG shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz."
The Strait of Hormuz is considered a strategic gateway for Middle Eastern oil exports, bordered by Oman to the south and Iran to the north. However, Iranian military authorities have warned ships transiting the area that "passage is currently not safe," pushing tensions to a peak. This is being interpreted as a signal of an imminent blockade. Some experts, however, suggest Iran may opt for limited responses such as selective seizures or ship attacks rather than a full blockade.
These concerns are expected to translate into upward pressure on international oil prices. On the 27th, as the possibility of U.S. military action emerged, Brent crude rose to around $72 per barrel.
Markets are discussing the possibility of prices entering the $80 range in the short term, with forecasts of a breach above $100 if the conflict spreads across the Middle East. Barclays' energy analysis team said, "Considering supply disruption risks from deteriorating Middle East security, Brent crude could surge to $100 per barrel."
Rising energy costs could place additional strain on the global economy, already weakened by intensifying trade conflicts since the start of Donald Trump's second term, analysts say. Oil prices are a key inflation variable, affecting not only fuel costs but industrial costs across the board. Capital Economics said, "Even limited airstrikes could push oil prices to around $80 per barrel, and a prolonged conflict with supply disruptions could drive them much higher," adding that "this would have a meaningful impact on global inflation." The firm estimated that if oil prices rise to $100 per barrel, global inflation could increase by an average of 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points.
This is also expected to complicate monetary policy for major central banks. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, international oil prices soared to around $140, prompting the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks to implement aggressive rate hikes. Central banks have since cut rates on the assumption that inflation was easing, but this trend could now face obstacles. The Wall Street Journal noted that the situation "could complicate policy decisions for the Fed and other major central banks, which have been lowering rates on the premise that post-COVID inflation had peaked."
However, some assessments suggest current market concerns may be excessive. Iran and major oil-producing nations reportedly accelerated crude shipments in anticipation of possible strikes, while Asian refiners preemptively expanded purchases. Gulf states are also said to be mitigating the impact by strengthening security on alternative shipping routes and activating parallel supply chains.