Why U.S. Attacked Iran: 'Khamenei's Death Is Beginning, Not End'

As President Donald Trump officially announced the death of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, attention is focused on the background and impact of the U.S. attack on Iran, as well as its ripple effects on the global economy and oil prices.

Trump Cites Iran's 'History of Threats'

President Trump cited Iran's "history of threats" as justification for the attack. In an early morning video message on the 28th (local time), Trump emphasized that "Iran has chanted 'Death to America' for 47 years while carrying out mass atrocities targeting our military and innocent people in many countries."

He also claimed that "Iran attempted to rebuild its nuclear program and recently refused to agree to abandon nuclear weapons in negotiations," adding that "their missile development program will soon be capable of reaching the U.S. mainland." However, many experts question whether Iran possesses nuclear capabilities that could be weaponized or whether it can immediately strike the United States with missiles.

Trump Exploits Iran at 'Weakest Point in History'

Analysts interpret the timing as Trump exploiting Iran at its "weakest point in history." Iran has experienced its largest anti-government protests, and continued sanctions have pushed its currency to record lows, leaving the economy reeling. The administration may have judged this as an opportunity to uproot Iran's threat to Israel and even overthrow Iran's theocratic regime to reshape Middle East order. Iran revealed itself as a "paper tiger" last June when it failed to mount any significant counterattack during the U.S. "Midnight Hammer" operation against Iranian nuclear facilities.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz outlined the goals of the "Grand Fury" operation as: dismantling Iran's missile capabilities, weakening its naval power, cutting off Iranian support for regional proxy militias, and preventing nuclear weapons acquisition.

President Trump urged the Iranian people: "Once we finish the attack, take over your government. This will probably be your only opportunity for generations."

Trump, Cornered by Tariff Ruling, Plays Conservative Rally Card

Domestically, President Trump has been struggling with the Supreme Court's ruling that reciprocal tariffs are illegal, ongoing Epstein connection allegations, and record-low approval ratings. The Iran attack can be seen as a bold gamble that absorbs all other issues like a black hole.

A U.S. congressional official noted: "Since the 20th century, the ruling party has won the House in midterm elections only twice—in 1934 when the New Deal was implemented to overcome the Great Depression, and in 2002 when conservatives rallied after 9/11. Trump may be aiming for conservative consolidation again."

Trump has previously stated that "if we lose the midterms, I could be impeached." The House holds impeachment authority, and many predict Republicans will lose their majority in November's midterm elections. Although the Senate could reject impeachment, Trump fears that even the introduction of impeachment articles could destabilize him and lead to lame-duck status. This explains why Trump is aligning all policies with the midterm elections.

U.S. Strikes Iran During Ramadan, Testing Middle East Relations

With Trump's announcement of Khamenei's death, the initial objectives of U.S. and Israeli military operations are considered successful. The challenge lies ahead.

Alex Ward, national security reporter for The Wall Street Journal, said in a podcast: "U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran are far easier than establishing a legitimate government with popular support in Iran. Even if we leave that to Iran, there will be considerable pressure for the U.S. to help when difficulties arise."

Even Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before the Senate in January that Iran's regime has a very complex structure with multiple power centers, saying: "No one will be able to simply answer what will happen in Iran when the supreme leader and regime fall."

WSJ Middle East correspondent Jared Malsin noted: "Many U.S. allies in the Gulf region strongly urged President Trump not to attack Iran. This region is currently in Ramadan, the Islamic holy month."

He added: "This is a major pilgrimage period with over a million pilgrims heading to Mecca, but airspace closures have caused tremendous chaos with no one able to travel, while also facing Iranian missile attacks. This will be a significant test for the U.S.-Gulf partnership."

Trump Gave Markets Time to 'Digest,' But World Economy Heads Into Storm

As with the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, Trump ordered this operation in the early hours between Friday and Saturday U.S. time. Analysts suggest this was calculated to minimize market impact by giving investors the weekend to digest the news. The 401(k), America's primary retirement account, is heavily weighted toward stocks, and a decline in U.S. equities could lead to defection among Trump's core elderly supporters.

However, Trump himself indicated that "bombing will continue without interruption throughout the week" and suggested it may continue beyond that. Combined with uncertain conditions inside Iran and movements of Middle Eastern nations, this is expected to cast uncertainty over global financial markets and the economy over an extended period.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20-30% of global maritime oil shipments pass, raising forecasts that oil prices currently around $70 could exceed $100.