The death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has focused international attention on the succession landscape. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of parliament, are emerging as potential successors.
According to major wire services on the 1st, Article 111 of Iran's constitution stipulates that in the event of the supreme leader's incapacitation, an emergency committee of three—comprising the president, the head of the judiciary, and a senior cleric from the Guardian Council—shall temporarily exercise supreme leader authority. However, with the survival of some key figures uncertain following the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, how the interim power structure will be configured remains unclear.
Larijani is cited first among succession candidates, reportedly having frequently served as Khamenei's proxy during his lifetime. He is said to have represented Khamenei in negotiations with Russia and China more often than President Masoud Pezeshkian in recent dealings.
Born in 1958, Larijani holds undergraduate degrees in mathematics and computer science and a doctorate in Kantian philosophy. He has served as both parliament speaker and cabinet minister while also having commanded the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Once regarded as a pragmatic conservative, he reportedly supported hardline measures during recent crackdowns on anti-government protests.
His family background is also notable. His father was a senior Shia cleric, and his father-in-law is known as an Islamic Revolution theorist and close confidant of Ruhollah Khomeini. His brother Sadeq Larijani served as chief justice and currently chairs the Expediency Discernment Council, an advisory body to the supreme leader.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, parliament speaker born in 1961, is considered a figure capable of rallying hardline conservative support. Ghalibaf has a strong base within the Revolutionary Guards and is known to be close to Mojtaba Khamenei, the late supreme leader's second son.
Former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, born in 1960, is assessed to have limited political foundation inside Iran given his roughly 40 years in exile abroad.
Meanwhile, some suggest the next power structure could be reshaped toward greater military influence. Reuters reported that the CIA has analyzed the possibility of IRGC-affiliated hardliners or military figures seizing power following Khamenei's death.
Some observers note that Iran's future trajectory depends on whether the Revolutionary Guards maintain cohesion. Fox News reported analysis suggesting that if the IRGC remains unified amid the leadership vacuum, the current system could largely be preserved through power realignment within the senior clerical establishment or military-led consolidation. Conversely, intensified internal factional conflict could prolong a power struggle.