Tensions are escalating in global energy and financial markets following reports of the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei in U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Forecasts suggest international oil prices could surge to $100 per barrel, particularly after reports emerged that Iran has moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil shipments.
According to major wire services on the 28th (local time), Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced through domestic media that it "is implementing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. and Israeli invasion." While no official statement has been issued by the Iranian government, local media reported the strait is "effectively closed." Some vessels reportedly altered their routes after receiving transmissions believed to be from the Iranian Navy announcing the passage ban through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz, located at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, is a critical gateway for global energy transportation. Reuters reported that some oil companies and major commodity traders have halted crude and fuel shipments through the strait. Analysts warn that disruption to this key shipping route would inevitably send shockwaves through the entire oil supply chain.
Official market price reactions remain unavailable as international commodity markets were closed over the weekend. However, on IG Group's retail trading platform, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged to $75.33 per barrel, up approximately 12% from the previous close.
Market participants expect heightened volatility when financial markets reopen on the 2nd. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Will Hares and Salih Yilmaz forecast that Brent crude could rise to around $80 per barrel in the short term.
Should the conflict spread across the Middle East, prices could breach $100 per barrel. Barclays' energy analysis team stated, "Considering the potential supply disruption risks from deteriorating Middle East security conditions, Brent crude prices could spike to the $100 level."
Rising geopolitical uncertainty triggered selling pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin fell as much as 3.8% to $63,038 before recovering to the $65,000 level. Cryptocurrency data provider CoinGecko reported that approximately $128 billion in market capitalization was wiped from the digital asset market immediately following the airstrikes.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media platform Truth Social, stating, "Khamenei, one of the most evil people in history, is dead."