WASHINGTON — Military tensions are escalating as the Trump administration reportedly favors a scenario in which Israel launches a preemptive strike against Iran, ahead of the third round of nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran scheduled for Sunday in Geneva.
Politico reported Saturday, citing multiple sources, that "senior aides to President Trump prefer a scenario in which Israel launches a preemptive strike before any U.S. attack on Iran."
The calculation aims to secure support from American voters. The expectation is that if Iran retaliates against the United States or its allies following an Israeli strike, more Americans would accept a war with Iran. Recent polls show Americans, particularly Republican supporters, favor regime change in Iran but do not want U.S. military casualties. Politico analyzed that "the Trump administration is therefore considering not only justifications such as Iran's nuclear program but also the social ramifications of the method of attack."
However, regardless of White House preferences, the most likely war scenario remains a joint U.S.-Israeli operation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House last week and pressed for action to address Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile infrastructure.
Pessimism reportedly prevails within the White House regarding the Geneva talks, seen as the last diplomatic window before military action. A source familiar with the discussions told Politico that "aides are leaning toward 'we're going to bomb them.'"
The key issue is whether highly enriched uranium stockpiles will be shipped abroad. Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest daily newspaper, reported that Iran has proposed reducing uranium enrichment levels from the current 60% to approximately 3.6%, the level set under the 2015 nuclear deal. The suspension period would be set at seven years.
However, Iran refuses to export its highly enriched uranium and instead demands dilution, while the United States insists on immediate removal of highly enriched uranium from Iranian territory. Axios reported that Special Envoy Steve Witkoff demanded the previous day that "sunset clauses must be eliminated from any nuclear deal with Iran."
Iranian leadership has expressed optimism about the negotiations. State news agency IRNA reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian told business leaders Saturday that "the outlook is bright." The Iranian delegation, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, has departed for the Geneva talks.