Iran is refusing to abandon its nuclear weapons development despite the United States massing strategic assets along its coast. Tehran judges that surrendering uranium enrichment capabilities at Washington's demand would lead directly to regime collapse.
The New York Times reported on May 23 that Iran is rejecting the Trump administration's demands to abandon nuclear development even as US warships and fighter jets gather in large numbers near Iranian shores. Analysts say Iran perceives compliance with US demands as regime collapse resulting from loss of nuclear capability. The Trump administration is demanding Iran halt uranium enrichment activities and limit ballistic missile range to exclude Israel from striking distance.
Iran publicly claims uranium enrichment serves peaceful purposes such as power generation and cannot be abandoned. However, the prevailing assessment is that nuclear weapons development through uranium enrichment is Tehran's true intention.
Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the Atlantic Council think tank and former head of the Israel Military Intelligence Iran branch, said, "Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei views uranium enrichment as a core pillar supporting the regime." He added, "Iran has no choice but to take a military approach."
Sasan Karimi, a professor at Tehran University and former acting vice president for strategic affairs in the Iranian government, said, "Avoiding war is the top priority, but that does not mean at any cost." He added, "Ideologically driven states sometimes value historical standing as much as, or more than, immediate survival."
Meanwhile, Iran is heightening its preparedness against potential US and Israeli surprise attacks on its leadership. The NYT reported, citing Iranian senior officials, that Khamenei has instructed Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, along with other close aides and military officials to prepare for assassination attempts targeting top leadership.
Khamenei has also established a four-tier succession order for military command and government positions he directly appoints. He has directed leadership figures to designate up to four successors each to prevent a power vacuum should he be assassinated.
As the US-Iran standoff continues, both nations will meet again at third-round negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland on May 26. The US is reportedly demanding Iran halt uranium enrichment and transfer nuclear materials out of the country. Iran maintains that stopping enrichment is impossible but has indicated willingness to reduce enrichment levels currently at 60 percent.
The third round of negotiations is expected to be a critical watershed determining whether the two nations will clash.