President Donald Trump's proposed global 15% tariff regime will provide the greatest benefits to countries that have faced U.S. trade pressure, including China and Brazil, according to new analysis. Meanwhile, U.S. allies such as the United Kingdom and the European Union are expected to face higher tariff burdens.
According to the Financial Times on the 22nd (local time), trade research organization Global Trade Alert (GTA) estimates that Brazil's average tariff rate on exports to the U.S. would fall by 13.6 percentage points under Trump's new tariff regime—the largest reduction among major countries. China follows with a 7.1 percentage point decrease.
The U.S. Supreme Court previously ruled that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. In response, President Trump announced plans to implement a 15% tariff on all countries as a replacement measure. The new measure is expected to take effect on the 24th.
Johannes Fritz, CEO of GTA, which conducted the analysis, explained: "Countries like China, Brazil, Mexico, and Canada that have faced strong criticism from the White House were direct targets of the existing IEEPA tariffs, so they see the largest tariff reductions under a single tariff regime."
Southeast Asian manufacturing countries are also expected to benefit from this measure. Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia—which have faced pressure from the Trump administration due to large trade surpluses with the U.S.—will see improved price competitiveness in key export categories including apparel, furniture, toys, and plastics under the new tariff regime, according to the organization.
In contrast, U.S. allies face collateral damage. Existing tariffs on their major export items such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles will remain in place regardless of the court ruling.
The UK is expected to be hit hardest. Although Britain secured a 10% reciprocal tariff rate through negotiations with the U.S. administration, the new single tariff regime is projected to raise its average tariff rate by 2.1 percentage points. The British Chambers of Commerce stated that "approximately 40,000 companies exporting to the U.S. will be disappointed by the new regime," calling for government renegotiation.
The EU faces a similar situation. Despite securing a 15% tariff rate through agreement with the U.S., average tariff rates are estimated to rise by 0.8 percentage points. Among member states, Italy and France are expected to be relatively more affected.
Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the new tariff mechanism lacks "the same flexibility" as reciprocal tariffs, but added: "He (Trump) has given us a very robust tool. Through this, we can conduct investigations and impose tariffs where necessary, providing significant leverage and protection for American industry."