The Supreme Court's ruling invalidating reciprocal tariffs is increasingly likely to become a variable in a potential U.S. attack on Iran. Speculation is growing that President Donald Trump, facing political crisis, may move aggressively toward military action against Iran. However, analysts suggest he could step back to focus on tariff solutions, given the uncertainties that would remain even after a successful strike.
According to The Wall Street Journal on Monday (local time), Wilbur Ross, who served as Commerce Secretary during Trump's first term, said the Supreme Court's ruling declaring tariffs unconstitutional could raise the likelihood of an Iran attack. "President Trump cannot accept this defeat and appear to be backing down on Iran," Ross said.
Trump had previously demanded that Iran halt nuclear enrichment, limit ballistic missiles, and stop supporting proxy militant groups. Simultaneously, he reinforced U.S. military forces in the region, deploying the largest military presence in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion.
Trump's position is that he would consider options ranging from limited preemptive strikes to prolonged bombing campaigns if Iran rejects his demands. Iran has indicated it would present a draft agreement within days, while warning of retaliation if attacked, saying it would "slap back." The New York Times expressed concern that unlike last year, U.S. forces could suffer significant casualties if Iran launches a strong counterattack.
However, even a swift victory against Iran would leave the U.S. with considerable burdens. U.S. government officials assessed that even if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were ousted through such a war, the situation would remain highly uncertain. While reaching an agreement to prevent nuclear development would represent a historic breakthrough, ordering an attack to pressure or topple the Iranian regime risks embroiling the administration in a large-scale conflict for the remainder of its term. Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution, said, "President Trump's options are not particularly attractive."
Trump's advisers have argued he should focus on economic issues ahead of this year's midterm elections. They calculate that escalating military tensions on top of public sentiment already turned against tariffs could fuel voter backlash. Reuters reported that Trump has ignored kitchen-table issues such as living costs by focusing on military force for 13 months since the start of his second term.
A closed-door briefing last week attended by White House staff and Republican campaign officials also emphasized economic focus as the top election priority. A senior White House official said, "There is no faction within the administration that agrees with pressing ahead with an Iran attack."