Hotel bookings from China for Japan's upcoming Lunar New Year holiday have surged 57% year-on-year, despite Beijing's travel advisory following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks suggesting intervention in a Taiwan contingency.
The shift toward independent travelers, who are less sensitive to political tensions than in the past, has sustained demand. However, concerns about a prolonged standoff persist as Chinese authorities escalate retaliatory measures including visa restrictions and mass flight cancellations.
According to Nikkei on Friday, a survey by hotel booking system company Tripla of 1,727 hotels across Japan found that bookings from China for the 2026 Lunar New Year period (February 15-23) increased 57% compared to the 2025 Lunar New Year (January 28-February 4).
A separate Nikkei survey of 10 major hotel chains showed eight reported bookings either exceeding (3 chains) or matching (5 chains) pre-advisory levels from the previous year. Only two hotels said bookings fell below last year's figures.
Five of the 10 hotel chains reported higher average daily rates (ADR). Tripla's data showed the nationwide average ADR for the 2026 Lunar New Year period reached 22,004 yen, up 21% year-on-year.
"Early snowfall this year has boosted ski demand from various countries, pushing up overall rates," Tripla said.
The resilience contrasts sharply with the more than 40% plunge in Chinese visitors during the 2012 Senkaku Islands (known as Diaoyu in China) nationalization dispute. Real estate services firm CBRE noted that the share of group tourists among Chinese visitors to Japan has shrunk from around 50% to 15.6% recently, strengthening resistance to diplomatic conflicts.
However, persistent and escalating pressure from Chinese authorities remains a concern. According to Yomiuri Shimbun, Chinese authorities instructed some travel agencies in November to reduce Japan-bound visa applications by at least 60% and cancel group tours to Japan.
The visa restriction is seen as an attempt to pressure individual travelers, who account for more than 80% of Chinese tourists visiting Japan.
Airlines are also reducing flights under government orders. According to China's Yicai Global and other sources, 2,195 flights to Japan scheduled for January—40.4% of the total—have been canceled.
"Lesser-known regional tourist destinations in Japan are highly dependent on Chinese tourists, and a prolonged situation could cause significant economic damage," a diplomatic source said.
