A magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck off the coast of Aomori Prefecture in northeastern Japan on January 8, raising concerns among tourists worldwide who are planning winter trips to the country.
Japanese authorities have warned that earthquakes occurring late at night during winter could lead to catastrophic disasters, urging special caution.
According to Japanese media including the Yomiuri Shimbun, the Japanese government issued a "Hokkaido-Sanriku Offshore Subsequent Earthquake Advisory" on January 9.
The subsequent earthquake advisory system was first introduced in December 2022. It is issued when a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake occurs along the Japan Trench or Kuril Trench—regions identified as potential epicenters for major earthquakes in Japan—and when the likelihood of a larger quake is deemed elevated.
The Japan Meteorological Agency estimates there is approximately a 1 percent probability of a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurring within one week after a magnitude 7.0 quake. The current advisory remains in effect until midnight on January 16.
The advisory has put both Japanese residents and tourists planning to visit Japan on high alert. Aomori Prefecture, where the strong earthquake occurred, and neighboring Hokkaido are popular winter destinations known for their snow scenery, and visitors to these regions are concerned about the possibility of a major earthquake.
Japanese authorities are particularly emphasizing the dangers of "winter late-night earthquakes."
The recent earthquake first struck around 11:15 p.m., forcing residents to evacuate along snow-covered roads in temperatures that had dropped to minus 1-2 degrees Celsius. With tsunami warnings issued for some coastal areas, about 200 residents in Hachinohe City had to endure freezing winds while sheltering on the rooftop of a tsunami evacuation building.
According to estimates released by the Japanese government in December 2022, if a magnitude 9.1 or greater mega-earthquake occurs along the Japan Trench, up to 199,000 people could die from the earthquake and tsunami across seven prefectural regions including Hokkaido, Aomori, and Iwate, with 220,000 buildings completely destroyed.
If a magnitude 9.3 earthquake strikes along the Kuril Trench, up to 100,000 deaths and 84,000 completely destroyed buildings are projected in these regions.
The Japanese government notes that when earthquakes occur in winter, evacuation is delayed due to snow-covered or icy road conditions, and damage can be amplified when wooden buildings collapse under the weight of accumulated snow.
Authorities also explain that dry air makes fires more likely, and even those who evacuate outdoors risk death from hypothermia or infectious diseases such as colds. Casualties are maximized when earthquakes strike late at night while people are sleeping.
In a damage assessment report on the "Nankai Trough Mega-Earthquake" released in March, the Japanese government estimated that if the Nankai mega-earthquake occurs on a winter late night, deaths could reach 39,000—10,000 more than the 27,000 projected for summer daytime or winter evening scenarios.
Calls are growing in Japan to prepare for "winter late-night earthquakes." Japanese media are emphasizing that winter earthquakes require different preparations than usual, urging people to re-check household disaster supplies and prepare items needed for evacuation during a winter earthquake.
Based on guidelines from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Japanese media, here are earthquake preparations that tourists visiting Japan can take:
First, do not place easily flammable items such as paper, plastic bags, clothes, or spray cans near heating equipment in accommodations. Be particularly careful not to leave shopping bags near heaters after shopping.
Prepare a flashlight for potential late-night evacuations. Using smartphone lights can quickly drain batteries, making it difficult to receive disaster alerts from authorities or call for rescue.
Identify the locations of evacuation shelters near your accommodation and "tsunami evacuation buildings" if staying near coastal areas, and learn the route from your accommodation to evacuation sites in advance. Familiarize yourself with evacuation routes accounting for snow-covered or icy conditions.
When evacuating, watch the road surface conditions carefully and be cautious of wooden buildings that may collapse under the weight of accumulated snow.
Prepare cold-weather gear including winter clothing, gloves, hats, blankets, thermal underwear, and hand warmers in case of extended stays at evacuation shelters. Additionally, prepare masks, hand sanitizer, and wet wipes, as infectious diseases such as COVID-19 can spread in shelters.
