Military tensions between China and Japan are escalating rapidly, raising the risk of armed conflict following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks suggesting intervention in a Taiwan contingency.
Chinese fighter jets have heightened military tensions by repeatedly locking radar onto Japanese Self-Defense Forces aircraft. Japan responded by holding an emergency briefing in the early morning hours, moving to gain the upper hand in the battle for public opinion. The conflict is spreading across all fronts, with Japan tightening anti-dumping tariff standards targeting China while China deliberately delays rare earth export procedures.
On January 7, major Japanese media outlets reported that a Chinese military fighter jet had illuminated a Japan Air Self-Defense Force fighter with radar over airspace near Okinawa the previous day. This marks the first time radar targeting between military aircraft, rather than naval vessels, has been publicly disclosed.
Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi held an emergency press conference at 2 a.m., stating that "a Chinese J-15 fighter jet intermittently illuminated a Self-Defense Force F-15 fighter with radar twice over international airspace southeast of Okinawa's main island on the afternoon of January 6." He expressed "extreme regret" over the incident.
According to the Ministry of Defense, the first radar lock lasted approximately three minutes starting around 4:32 p.m., while the second continued for roughly 30 minutes from around 6:37 p.m. The ministry stated that "there would be no need for repeated illumination if the purpose were merely search," concluding that the radar lock was for fire-control purposes. Fire-control radar illumination, used to measure distance to a target for attacks such as missile launches, is considered a threat of being shot down.
Koizumi strongly condemned the action as "an extremely dangerous act exceeding what is necessary for safe aircraft flight," adding that Japan had lodged a strong protest with China through diplomatic and defense channels.
The incident occurred when an F-15 scrambled from Japan's Naha base toward a J-15 that had launched from the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning, which was sailing in the western Pacific approximately 270 kilometers west of Okidaitojima island in Okinawa Prefecture. The Ministry of Defense explained that the F-15, scrambled as a legitimate response, was subjected to radar illumination by the Chinese aircraft.
In response, a Chinese Navy spokesperson demanded that "Japan stop its slander and strictly restrain its actions on the front line," claiming that Japan "seriously affected China's normal training and significantly threatened flight safety."
A hotline between Chinese and Japanese defense authorities was established in 2023 to prevent accidental collisions, but it reportedly was not activated during this incident.
Japan is focusing on what it perceives as China's heightened level of provocation. While a Chinese naval vessel illuminated a Japanese escort ship with radar in 2013, targeting between high-speed fighter jets carries a much higher risk of accidental collision. It was also unusual for Japan's defense minister to personally address the media less than 10 hours after the incident occurred. Nikkei noted that "this contrasts with 2013, when analysis and announcement took several weeks," analyzing that the intent was "to quickly inform the international community of China's coercive behavior and gain the upper hand in the battle for public opinion."
The bilateral conflict is expanding on all fronts. According to Yomiuri Shimbun, the Japanese government is considering imposing anti-dumping tariffs on transshipments through third countries to block China's low-price offensive. Additionally, to respond swiftly to circumvention, the government decided to shorten the investigation period from approximately three years to about one year and accelerate fact-finding procedures.
China has targeted Japan's vulnerabilities through "resource weaponization." Yomiuri, citing government sources, reported that "while it cannot be determined whether this is intentional harassment by the Chinese side, delays are occurring in export procedures for critical minerals." The paper analyzed that "China appears to be using rare earths, a key material for electric vehicle motors, as leverage to pressure Japan." Japan, which depends on China for most of its rare earths, would see its manufacturing sector suffer if exports of critical minerals are disrupted.
Current analysis suggests the China-Japan conflict is likely to last longer than expected. Nikkei reported that "when the Senkaku Islands were nationalized in the past, it took more than two years for a China-Japan summit to be realized," adding that "this situation is also likely to lead to a prolonged confrontation."
Meanwhile, Japan's anxiety is also being directed toward the United States. The Financial Times, citing sources, reported that Japanese Ambassador to the United States Shigeo Yamada recently requested the Trump administration to "express more support for Prime Minister Takaichi." However, no official U.S. response has been reported.
