"People wouldn't even look at land where you can't build a house, even at 7 million to 8 million won per 3.3 square meters. But lately, people are suddenly showing up saying they'll buy it at 18 million won, 20 million won. Why buy it? Because it's about to be freed up."
A head of a real estate brokerage, whom this reporter met near Jagok-dong in Seoul's Gangnam district on the 4th, said this, adding that "people interested in vacant lots near Gyosu Village, Bangjuk Village, and Jaenggol Village are gradually increasing." The head, who said he has kept the same spot for more than 30 years, said, "For the first time in about 15 years since public housing was built during the MB era, a large-scale development is about to proceed."
As it became known that the government is reviewing the lifting of development-restricted zones (greenbelts) as one of its supply-expansion cards amid repeated housing price instability, Seoul's representative greenbelts—Bangi-dong in Songpa district, Segok-dong and Suseo-dong in Gangnam district, and Naegok-dong and Umyeon-dong in Seocho district—are stirring. In particular, areas repeatedly cited as additional greenbelt removal candidates—the reserve forces training ground in Seocho district's Naegok-dong, the vicinity of the Olympic Athletes' Village in Songpa district's Bangi-dong, Segok-dong and Jagok-dong in Gangnam district, and the area around the Suseo rail depot in Suseo-dong—saw expectations of "this time" coexisting with voices saying "it's difficult."
Another brokerage head met near Segok-dong asked back, "Is it really going to be freed up?" while expressing expectation that "if it's freed up, this is the choicest of prime land." However, he said, "What matters is how the land compensation and expropriation are handled," adding that "if forced expropriation is carried out like at Seoripul, making progress won't be easy."
Near Suseo-dong, expectations for the development of the Suseo rail depot were high. Seoul City has put forward a plan to create business and commercial facilities and green space atop the Suseo rail depot. The plan is to nurture it into an advanced-industry complex city connecting central Gangnam and the Pangyo area. Linkage with the Suseo Robot Specialized Development Promotion District, which Gangnam district is pursuing, is also possible.
There is also expectation for the lifting of the greenbelt near Gyosu Village and Gung Village, but the assessment is that it won't be easy. A brokerage head near Suseo-dong said, "The elevation is high and land prices are already too expensive, so expropriation won't be easy." He continued, "The president says he'll take a helicopter to look for vacant land, but 15 years ago MB scraped together all the vacant land in this vicinity to build public housing," adding, "Unless the National Intelligence Service and Seoul Airport are relocated, building houses does not look easy."
According to Seoul City, as of last year the total area of Seoul's greenbelt was 149.1 square kilometers, about 25% of Seoul's total area. Seocho district was the largest at 23.89 square kilometers, followed by Gangseo district (18.91 square kilometers), Nowon district (15.9 square kilometers), Eunpyeong district (15.21 square kilometers), Gangbuk district (11.67 square kilometers), Dobong district (10.20 square kilometers), and Gangnam district (6.09 square kilometers). Of these, the Gangbuk area is near Bukhansan, making development physically difficult. Gangseo district is also subject to height restrictions due to the influence of Gimpo Airport, so the greenbelt in the Gangnam area is cited as the leading candidate site.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) began reviewing measures to expand housing supply through greenbelt removal in earnest after Minister Kim Yoon-duk mentioned at a national real estate policy debate held on the 27th of last month that "since becoming minister, I have had a strong desire to build houses even if it means lifting the greenbelt." Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Koo Yun-cheol also said, "To expand housing supply, we are reviewing plans to lift part of the greenbelt and even utilize military facilities."
The biggest hurdle to greenbelt removal is resident backlash. In fact, Seoripul District 2 in Seocho district's Umyeon-dong, where the greenbelt was lifted in June this year, is embroiled in intense conflict. Residents are strongly resisting the government's designation of a public housing district and are even willing to file administrative lawsuits. Sung Hae-young, vice chairman of the Songdong Village Emergency Response Committee, said, "This is a place passed down for 17 to 18 generations of ancestors," adding, "We never even imagined it would be forcibly expropriated."
There is also criticism that greenbelt removal has no practical effect when time is considered. Kim In-man, head of the Kim In-man Real Estate Research Institute, said, "It's important to speed up places already under development." Kim Je-kyung, head of Tumi Real Estate Consulting, also said, "The remaining greenbelt is deep in the mountains, and I'm not sure it would be effective to build apartments in places the subway doesn't even reach."
Seoul City is also not favorable. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon has shown a cautious stance on greenbelt removal, citing environmental preservation and the limits of housing supply effects. If greenbelt removal is pursued in earnest, consultation with Seoul City will be essential, and coordination over the supply method and development direction is expected to be the key. A senior Seoul City official said, "There have not yet been any inquiries from the government regarding greenbelt removal."
Some raise the vicinity of the U.S. military base in Yongsan as an alternative. The site is large, its location conditions are as excellent as the Gangnam greenbelt, and since it would become state-owned land if the U.S. military returns it, no compensation procedures would be needed. However, the delay in the U.S. military's return timing and the issue of soil contamination are concerns.
