▲AI PRISM* Customized Economic Briefing
*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an "AI-based customized news recommendation and summary service" developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items by reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ Stock Market Roller Coaster: The KOSPI plunged 17.20% over three days before surging 17.91% in a single day on the 31st to close at 6,595.45. This marked the largest gain rate and gain margin on record, surpassing the 11.95% rise seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. The move is interpreted as the result of bargain buying that coincided with the simultaneous resolution of the so-called three major risks: the sustainability of artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure, a semiconductor peak-out, and excessive leverage.
■ Earnings Tailwind: HD Hyundai (267250.KS) posted second-quarter revenue of 22.4094 trillion won and operating profit of 4.1246 trillion won, up 30.2% and 262.2% respectively from a year earlier. With earnings improving evenly across major businesses including shipbuilding, construction equipment, oil refining, and power equipment, the stabilization of its business structure has become clearly evident.
■ Semiconductor Value Chain Realignment: Buoyed by the Japanese government's semiconductor promotion policy, the ACE Japan Semiconductor ETF posted a one-year return of 88.94%, while Doosan (000150.KS) acquired a 70.6% stake in SK Siltron for 2.3 trillion won, completing a semiconductor value chain spanning from wafers to back-end testing. As a result, the realignment of the domestic and overseas semiconductor ecosystem is progressing simultaneously, accelerating changes in the industry landscape.
[News of Interest to Stock Investors]
1. KOSPI Surges 17.91% in a Day, Marking Largest Gain on Record
- Key Summary: The KOSPI plunged 17.20% over the preceding three trading days before surging 17.91% in a single day on the 31st to close at 6,595.45. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) closed at 262,500 won, up 26.81%, while SK hynix (000660.KS), SK Square (402340.KS), and Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS) all hit their daily upper limit. Solid earnings announcements from Microsoft and Amazon, along with Apple's remarks on memory supply shortages, are cited as the backdrop for the simultaneous resolution of concerns over AI capital expenditure sustainability and a semiconductor peak. However, the index remains 22% below its level at the end of June, and Baek Young-chan, head of the research center at Sangsangin Securities (001290.KQ), forecast that the direction will become clear in September and October when Big Tech's third-quarter earnings are confirmed.
2. HD Hyundai Posts Q2 Operating Profit of 4.1246 Trillion Won, Up 262% Year-on-Year
- Key Summary: HD Hyundai posted second-quarter revenue of 22.4094 trillion won and operating profit of 4.1246 trillion won on a consolidated basis, up 30.2% and 262.2% respectively from a year earlier. Net profit rose 550.2% to 3.1732 trillion won. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540.KS), the shipbuilding and offshore division, saw operating profit rise 72.5% on expanded sales of high-margin vessels, while the construction equipment, oil refining, and power equipment divisions all achieved earnings improvements. In particular, HD Hyundai Oilbank swung to a profit from an operating loss a year earlier, supporting the improvement in profitability across all businesses.
3. Betting on Japan's Semiconductor Push; ETF One-Year Return Nears 90%
- Key Summary: As the Japanese government designated AI and semiconductors as national strategic industries and decided to invest 370 trillion yen (about 3,500 trillion won) by 2040, the returns of domestically listed Japanese semiconductor ETFs jumped sharply. ACE Japan Semiconductor recorded a six-month return of 7.33% and a one-year return of 88.94%, the highest among 18 domestically listed Japan-investment ETFs. This product invests on an equal-weighted basis in 25 companies including Kioxia and Tokyo Electron, with a structure that diversifies investment across the entire value chain, including materials, equipment, and manufacturing. Government subsidies also continue to support Rapidus's mass production of 2-nanometer processes and the expansion of TSMC's Kumamoto plant.
4. Doosan Confirms SK Siltron Acquisition for 2.3 Trillion Won
- Key Summary: Doosan confirmed it will acquire a 70.6% stake in SK Siltron for approximately 2.3 trillion won, seven months after being selected as the preferred bidder. Siltron's enterprise value is estimated at the mid-5 trillion won range, and SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won's personal 29.4% stake was excluded from this transaction. Following its earlier acquisitions of Doosan Tesna and Enzion, Doosan has now taken over Siltron, completing a semiconductor value chain spanning from wafers to substrate materials and back-end testing. As a supplementary mechanism, the two companies established an earn-out structure of excess profit sharing, under which SK will share part of the profits if Siltron's earnings exceed the agreed benchmark.
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