More than half of home seekers expect housing prices to rise further in the second half of this year. With prices in core areas of the greater Seoul region, including Seoul, continuing to show strength and concerns over supply shortages in urban centers mounting, the market's expectation of rising home prices shows no sign of weakening.
On the 29th, Real Estate 114 said that in a survey on the "2026 Second-Half Housing Market Outlook" conducted over 10 days from the 13th to the 22nd of this month among 1,602 people nationwide, 56% of respondents expected housing sales prices to rise in the second half of this year. Only 10% of the total anticipated a decline. Compared with the first-half survey this year, the rising outlook increased by 4 percentage points, while the declining outlook fell by 4 percentage points. The outlook for flat prices remained unchanged at 34%.
The most cited reason for expecting price increases was "rising apartment prices in core areas," chosen by 32.33% of all respondents. This was followed by "deepening supply shortages in major urban centers such as Seoul" (16.95%). Real Estate 114 analyzed the trend as reflecting "the recent increase in transaction cases in Seoul that exceed past record highs, not only in core areas but also in mid- to low-priced areas." The company explained that expectations that price gains in core areas would spread across all of Seoul, combined with concerns over supply shortages in preferred areas, have raised expectations regarding home prices.
By contrast, 34.55% of respondents who expected prices to fall predicted a "weakening of buying sentiment due to lending regulations." This view holds that transactions will continue to shrink as funding conditions worsen due to the banking sector's total household loan cap regulations and reductions in mortgage limits within regulated areas. Other cited reasons for a decline included the possibility of an economic downturn (18.18%) and an increase in listings due to interest and tax burdens (14.55%).
Jeonse and Monthly Rent Markets Face Upward Pressure; Biggest Second-Half Variables Are External Conditions and Rates
The outlook for second-half rental prices also showed an increased proportion of respondents expecting rises compared with the previous survey. Responses expecting jeonse (a Korean lease system requiring a large lump-sum deposit instead of monthly rent) prices to rise increased from 57.75% in the first half to 61.86% in the second half, while the outlook for rising monthly rent also increased from 60.91% to 65.04%. The analysis found that an "increase in jeonse demand due to weakened buying sentiment" (34.51%), a "shortage of jeonse supply due to preference for monthly rent" (23.92%), and a "drought in move-in supply" (18.26%) are aggravating the jeonse supply-demand imbalance.
When asked about the major variables that will determine the direction of the real estate market in the second half of this year, "external economic conditions such as the pace of domestic and overseas economic recovery" (37.45%) and "whether the Bank of Korea raises its base rate" (37.33%) closely occupied the first and second spots. These were followed by "changes in the real estate regulatory environment, such as loans and taxes" (34.58%) and "the government's large-scale housing supply policy" (25.22%) as major variables.
Meanwhile, Real Estate 114 has conducted online "First-Half and Second-Half Housing Market Outlook" surveys twice a year since 2008. The margin of error is ±2.45 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
