Retail Investors Bet Against Market With Contrarian ETF Trades

Bought Inverse ETFs on the 15th as Market Surged Bought Leveraged ETFs on the 16th as Market Plunged 'Buy When It Falls, Sell When It Rises'

Finance|
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By Lee Young-ho
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A screen at the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul, displays the KOSPI on the 16th. The KOSPI fell 6% that day, dropping below the 7,000 level. Yonhap News - Seoul Economic Daily Finance News from South Korea
A screen at the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul, displays the KOSPI on the 16th. The KOSPI fell 6% that day, dropping below the 7,000 level. Yonhap News

Retail investors reversed the direction of their exchange-traded fund (ETF) purchases in a single day. On a day when the index surged more than 6%, they bought inverse ETFs and sold leveraged products, only to do the opposite on the day the index plunged, scooping up leveraged products and dumping inverse ones. Over two consecutive days, they moved against the index in contrarian trades, responding to volatile market conditions.

According to Koscom and Timefolio Asset Management on the 16th, the top ETF by net purchases among individuals that day was KODEX SK hynix Single Stock Leverage (265 billion won). It was followed by KODEX Leverage (197.4 billion won) and TIGER SK hynix Single Stock Leverage (124.1 billion won).

Although it was a day when the KOSPI plunged 6.37% and SK hynix crashed 11.53%, individuals concentrated their purchases on semiconductor leveraged products that had suffered steep declines. In contrast, the top product by net sales that day was KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X (136.3 billion won), while SOL SK hynix Futures Single Stock Inverse 2X (96.4 billion won) and KODEX Inverse (46.9 billion won) — products betting on declines — ranked high among net sales.

The previous day, on the 15th, retail investors showed the exact opposite pattern. It was a day when the KOSPI surged 6.24%, buoyed by strength in semiconductors. The top product by net purchases among individuals was KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X (115.3 billion won), followed by SOL SK hynix Futures Single Stock Inverse 2X (37.5 billion won) in third place and KODEX Inverse (33.6 billion won) in fifth, as inverse products ranked high in net purchases.

In contrast, the top product by net sales that day was KODEX SK hynix Single Stock Leverage (382.4 billion won), as investors moved to realize profits by clearing out leveraged products including KODEX Leverage (302.7 billion won) and KODEX KOSDAQ150 Leverage (127.9 billion won).

As a result, individuals sold at highs and bet on declines on the day the market rose, then turned to bargain buying on the day it fell. In effect, they pursued contrarian investing — the so-called strategy of "buy when it falls, sell when it rises." In particular, the SK hynix single stock leverage product shifted from the top spot in net sales on the 15th to the top spot in net purchases on the 16th, becoming the centerpiece of retail investors' ETF trading over the two days. This is interpreted as a typical range-bound strategy of realizing profits on a surge day and then buying back the same product on a plunge day.

However, ultra-high-risk products such as single stock leverage carry a high risk of loss, observers noted. In a highly volatile market, if directional predictions go wrong, losses can double, the explanation goes.

null - Seoul Economic Daily Finance News from South Korea

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Original reporting by Lee Young-ho for Seoul Economic Daily.

AI-translated from Korean. Quotes from foreign sources are based on Korean-language reports and may not reflect exact original wording.

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