"Can we reach 3 million won again on Hynix?"
As SK hynix (000660.KS) shares plunged recently, a "3-Million-Won Hynix scenario" bingo board has emerged among investors. It is a self-deprecating scenario requiring all nine conditions to align. But views in the securities industry are split between expectations that the AI super-cycle will continue and concerns over a short-term slowdown in earnings.
TSMC Earnings the First Test... 'Nixch Scenario' Meme
The semiconductor industry's attention is focused on TSMC, which reports earnings on the 16th. With AI chip stocks including SK hynix recently undergoing significant corrections on peak-out concerns, the message the world's largest foundry TSMC delivers on AI demand and this year's earnings outlook is seen as a key variable that will sway investor sentiment.
TSMC has already raised expectations. In June, it posted monthly revenue of 442.68 billion New Taiwan dollars (about 20.8 trillion won), setting a new record high, while cumulative first-half revenue also reached 1.27 trillion New Taiwan dollars (about 59.7 trillion won), up about 39 percent from a year earlier. The market expects that if this earnings report confirms AI chip orders, advanced process utilization rates, and an upward revision to this year's revenue outlook, the recently heightened concerns over the semiconductor industry could ease.
TSMC's earnings matter because they are the first test to confirm whether the enthusiasm for AI investment is actually continuing. Reflecting this mood, a bingo board organizing the "3-Million-Won Hynix scenario" has even emerged among investors.
The content holds that SK hynix can recover to 3 million won only if everything aligns: strong TSMC earnings first, followed by an earnings surprise from Samsung Electronics, expanded AI investment from Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, and strong earnings from SK hynix and Seagate. Investors say things like "It's harder than World Cup scenarios" and "You need a full bingo," expressing both high expectations and anxiety in the current market.
Securities Industry Split: "Short-Term Correction" vs. "AI Super-Cycle Continues"
After TSMC's earnings, the market's attention naturally turns to SK hynix. SK hynix will hold an investor relations (IR) briefing at 9 a.m. on the 29th to announce its second-quarter results this year.
Views among securities firms are split over the earnings outlook. On the 13th, Korea Investment & Securities projected that SK hynix's second-quarter operating profit would fall about 8 percent below the market forecast. The analysis attributed this to the fact that its high proportion of HBM sales makes its average selling price (ASP) growth lower than competitors, and to a realistic price outlook reflecting long-term agreements (LTA). Accordingly, it lowered its operating profit forecasts for this year and next by 9 percent and 11 percent, respectively, but maintained a "buy" rating and a target price of 3.8 million won.
By contrast, on the 15th, KB Securities forecast that second-quarter operating profit would exceed the market consensus, saying the memory supply shortage driven by expanded AI data center investment would continue until at least 2028. It said earnings volatility would decrease and high profitability would continue on the back of expanded HBM production and increased long-term supply agreements, maintaining a target price of 4.2 million won.
The industry believes this earnings season will ultimately be a watershed for confirming whether AI investment continues. The industry sees TSMC's earnings and the subsequent SK hynix earnings announcement as a watershed for confirming whether AI investment continues.
Stock Split Hopes Too... "Better Access, But No Guarantee for the Stock Price"
However, some view that the stock split effect will not be as large as in the past, given that ETFs and fractional trading have become active. Nonetheless, the market forecasts that if a stock split materializes while SK hynix's fundamentals are maintained, it could work positively toward expanding the investment base.
With the share price recently exceeding 2 million won, the possibility of a stock split is again being discussed.
At an ADR listing event on the 10th, SK Group Chairman Tae-won Choi, when asked about the possibility of a stock split, said, "If more requests come, we will of course review it," but added, "We have not yet received any related proposals."
A stock split does not change corporate value but lowers the price per share by increasing the number of shares. It has the effect of improving access for individual investors, but it does not guarantee a rise in the stock price.
A representative example is Samsung Electronics. After a 50-to-1 stock split in 2018, the price per share fell significantly, and the number of minority shareholders surged from 140,000 to 750,000, and now exceeds 4.2 million.
