SpaceX will be officially added to the Nasdaq 100, the benchmark index of major U.S. technology stocks, through a "fast-track" system less than a month after its listing. Mechanical buying demand from index-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index funds alone is expected to reach up to 41 trillion won, drawing market attention to the short-term supply-and-demand effect.
According to the financial investment industry Saturday, SpaceX will be officially added to the Nasdaq 100 index before the U.S. market opens Sunday. Most of the actual rebalancing of index-tracking funds is expected to take place at the market close the previous day, Saturday. The Nasdaq 100 is a benchmark index composed of large U.S. technology stocks such as Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon. Global assets under management tracking the index exceed $800 billion (about 1,220 trillion won), of which Invesco's QQQ ETF alone accounts for about $500 billion (about 763 trillion won).
This inclusion marks the first application of the fast-track system that Nasdaq newly created for large initial public offerings (IPOs). Listed on the Nasdaq market on Nov. 12, SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after its listing, placing its name on the benchmark index far more quickly than under previous rules.
Citing JPMorgan's estimates, ETF.com analyzed that about $4.3 billion (about 6.6 trillion won) in SpaceX buying demand would arise from the QQQ ETF alone. Combining funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 1000, the scale of passive fund inflows resulting from the index inclusion is estimated to reach up to $22 billion to $27 billion (about 33.6 trillion to 41.2 trillion won).
The market is also focusing on SpaceX's actual weighting in the index. Under the typical method, its weighting within the index would be around 0.47% to 0.70%, but a newly introduced Nasdaq "float multiplier" rule will apply, given that its free-float ratio is only 4% to 5%. As a result, some suggest the actual weighting could be higher than that.
Stock price forecasts are somewhat divided. SpaceX surged to as high as $225 intraday shortly after its listing, but has recently continued to fluctuate around $149 to $163. According to financial information firm TipRanks, analysts' average 12-month target price is $210.86, about 30% higher than the current share price. Investment ratings tallied four buys, four holds, and one sell.
